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The Mortgage Rate Conundrum

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  • Alejandro Justiniano
  • Giorgio E. Primiceri
  • Andrea Tambalotti

Abstract

We study the interest rates of privately securitized residential mortgages during the credit boom of the early 2000s. They reveal a sharp and persistent drop in the spread between mortgage and Treasury rates starting in the summer of 2003. The emergence of this mortgage rate conundrum immediately followed the collapse of an unprecedented refinancing wave, and it was more pronounced in the regions where that wave had grown faster. These same areas also experienced more originations of the nonconforming mortgages that boosted private label securitization after 2003. Mortgages originated after this shift are the first to show signs of deteriorating quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "The Mortgage Rate Conundrum," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(1), pages 121-156.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/717043
    DOI: 10.1086/717043
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    Cited by:

    1. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2020. "Mildly explosive dynamics in U.S. fixed income markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 712-724.
    2. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "Indebted Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2243-2307.
    3. Gadi Barlevy & Jonas Fisher, 2021. "Why were interest only mortgages so population during U.S. housing boom?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 205-224, July.
    4. van der Plaat, Mark, 2020. "Loan sales and the tyranny of tistance in U.S. residential mortgage lending," MPRA Paper 107519, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Apr 2021.
    5. Saroj Bhattarai & Choongryul Yang & Felipe Schwartzman, 2019. "The Persistent Employment E ffects of the 2006-09 U.S. Housing Wealth Collapse," 2019 Meeting Papers 671, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. David Berger & Konstantin Milbradt & Fabrice Tourre & Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 2829-2878, September.
    7. Arthur Acolin & Xudong An & Susan M. Wachter, 2022. "Lending competition, regulation, and nontraditional mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 340-365, June.
    8. Bäckman, Claes & Lutz, Chandler, 2020. "The impact of interest-only loans on affordability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. David Finck & Joerg Schmidt & Peter Tillmann, 2018. "Mortgage Debt and Time-Varying Monetary Policy Transmission," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201809, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Bäckman, Claes & Khorunzhina, Natalia, 2020. "Interest-Only Mortgages and Consumption Growth: Evidence from a Mortgage Market Reform," MPRA Paper 98524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. William Diamond & Tim Landvoigt, 2019. "Credit Cycles with Market Based Household Leverage," 2019 Meeting Papers 162, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Adam J. Levitin & Desen Lin & Susan M. Wachter, 2020. "Mortgage Risk Premiums during the Housing Bubble," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 421-468, May.
    13. Helmut Herwartz & Christian Ochsner & Hannes Rohloff, 2021. "Global Credit Shocks and Real Economies," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202116, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    14. Lewis, Brittany Almquist, 2023. "Creditor rights, collateral reuse, and credit supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 451-472.
    15. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2019. "Crises in the Housing Market: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons," Working Papers 2019-33, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. James A Kahn & Benjamin S Kay, 2020. "The impact of credit risk mispricing on mortgage lending during the subprime boom," BIS Working Papers 875, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Paul, Pascal, 2020. "A macroeconomic model with occasional financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    18. Nelson Lind, 2017. "Credit Regimes and the Seeds of Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 1474, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Morris A Davis & William D Larson & Stephen D Oliner & Benjamin R Smith, 2023. "A Quarter Century of Mortgage Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 581-618.
    20. Bo Li, 2024. "Testing Business Cycle Theories: Evidence from the Great Recession," Papers 2403.04104, arXiv.org.
    21. James A. Kahn & Benjamin S. Kay, 2019. "The Impact of Credit Risk Mispricing on Mortgage Lending during the Subprime Boom," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Drechsler, Itamar & Savov, Alexi & Schnabl, Philipp, 2022. "How monetary policy shaped the housing boom," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 992-1021.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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