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Fertility Decline, Baby Boom, and Economic Growth

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  • Kevin M. Murphy
  • Curtis Simon
  • Robert Tamura

Abstract

We present new data on fertility, schooling, and child survival in fertility in the United States between 1800 and 2000. Over that period, fertility, children's schooling, and child survival converged across states and regions. Falling child mortality, rising parental education, and increased population density are all associated with falling fertility and rising children's schooling. Our data reveal two baby boom regimes. Regions that experienced large baby booms had smaller increases in child schooling, whereas regions that experienced small baby booms had larger increases. We parameterize a model that appears to fit well the broad trends in our data.

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File URL: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/resolve?id=doi:10.1086/593052
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Human Capital.

Volume (Year): 2 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 262-302

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:v:2:i:3:y:2008:p:262-302

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References

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  1. Jones Charles I., 2001. "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-45, August.
  2. Oded Galor, 2006. "The Demographic Transition," Working Papers 2006-24, Brown University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Tamura, Robert & Dwyer, Gerald P. & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott, 2012. "Economic growth In the long run," MPRA Paper 41324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2013. "Life expectancy and human capital: Evidence from the international epidemiological transition," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1142-1152.
  3. Casper Worm Hansen, 2012. "Causes of mortality and development: Evidence from large health shocks in 20th century America," Economics Working Papers 2012-29, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  4. Raquel Fernandez, 2010. "Women's Rights and Development," Working Papers 2011-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  5. Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis & Murphy, Kevin M., 2012. "Black and White Fertility, Differential Baby Booms: The Value of Civil Rights," MPRA Paper 40921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Raquel Fernández, 2014. "Women’s rights and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 37-80, March.
  7. Deng, Binbin, 2009. "人口结构转变过程中生育率与经济增长的关系
    [Fertility and Economic Growth in the Process of Demographic Transition]
    ," MPRA Paper 23207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Masako Kimura & Daishin Yasui, 2010. "The Galor–Weil gender-gap model revisited: from home to market," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 323-351, December.
  9. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2012. "The effect of life expectancy on schooling: Evidence from the international health transition," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 6/2012, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark.
  10. Raquel Fernández, 2009. "Women's Rights and Development," NBER Working Papers 15355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Canaday, Neil & Tamura, Robert, 2009. "White discrimination in provision of black education: Plantations and towns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1490-1530, July.
  12. Matthias Cinyabuguma & Bill Lord & Christelle Viauroux, 2012. "Revolution in U.S. Fertility, Schooling and Women's Work, 1875-1940: Assessing Proposed Explanations," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 12-04, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 30 Aug 2013.
  13. Matthias Cinyabuguma & Bill Lord & Christelle Viauroux, 2009. "Health and the Revolution in Household Behavior 1880-1940: Fertility, Education and Married Female Labor Supply (previously entitled: Schooling, Fertility, and Married Female Labor Supply: What Role f," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-108, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 15 Apr 2010.
  14. Fernández, Raquel, 2009. "Women's Rights and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 7464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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