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Profitable technical trading rules as a source of price instability

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  • David Goldbaum

Abstract

This model incorporates technical trading rules (TTRs) that extract information from the price, allowing the users to benefit from the information. Sustainable profits are possible as long as the price movements reflect changes in the security's intrinsic value. The choice to use the TTR rather than fundamental information is endogenous to the model. Increases in the popularity of the TTR can produce price bubbles and diminish the TTR's ability to extract a reliable signal. Large fluctuations in the TTR's popularity lead to unsustainable periods of positive profits coupled with long-term losses.

Suggested Citation

  • David Goldbaum, 2003. "Profitable technical trading rules as a source of price instability," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 220-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:3:y:2003:i:3:p:220-229
    DOI: 10.1088/1469-7688/3/3/308
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Goldbaum, David & Mizrach, Bruce, 2008. "Estimating the intensity of choice in a dynamic mutual fund allocation decision," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 3866-3876, December.
    2. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hommes, Cars, 2006. "A dynamic analysis of moving average rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1729-1753.
    3. David Goldbaum, 2013. "Learning and Adaptation as a Source of Market Failure," Working Paper Series 14, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. He, Xue-Zhong & Zheng, Min, 2010. "Dynamics of moving average rules in a continuous-time financial market model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 615-634, December.
    5. Yehong Liu & Guosheng Yin, 2018. "Average Holding Price," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Tsung-Hsun Lu & Yung-Ming Shiu, 2016. "Can 1-day candlestick patterns be profitable on the 30 component stocks of the DJIA?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(35), pages 3345-3354, July.
    7. Sermpinis, Georgios & Hassanniakalager, Arman & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Psaradellis, Ioannis, 2021. "Technical analysis profitability and Persistence: A discrete false discovery approach on MSCI indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Eero P䴤ri & Mika Vilska, 2014. "Performance of moving average trading strategies over varying stock market conditions: the Finnish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2851-2872, August.
    9. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    10. Tsung-Hsun Lu & Yung-Ming Shiu, 2012. "Tests for Two-Day Candlestick Patterns in the Emerging Equity Market of Taiwan," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 41-57, January.
    11. Goldbaum, David, 2017. "Divergent Behavior in Markets with Idiosyncratic Private Information," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 4(2), pages 181-213, September.

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