Discrete-Time Volatility Forecasting With Persistent Leverage Effect and the Link With Continuous-Time Volatility Modeling
AbstractWe first propose a reduced-form model in discrete time for S&P 500 volatility showing that the forecasting performance can be significantly improved by introducing a persistent leverage effect with a long-range dependence similar to that of volatility itself. We also find a strongly significant positive impact of lagged jumps on volatility, which however is absorbed more quickly. We then estimate continuous-time stochastic volatility models that are able to reproduce the statistical features captured by the discrete-time model. We show that a single-factor model driven by a fractional Brownian motion is unable to reproduce the volatility dynamics observed in the data, while a multifactor Markovian model fully replicates the persistence of both volatility and leverage effect. The impact of jumps can be associated with a common jump component in price and volatility. This article has online supplementary materials.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.
Volume (Year): 30 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Danilo Delpini & Giacomo Bormetti, 2012. "Stochastic Volatility with Heterogeneous Time Scales," Papers 1206.0026, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.