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Measuring downside risk - realised semivariance Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen ()
Silja Kinnebrock ()
Neil Shephard ()
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We propose a new measure of risk, based entirely on downwards moves measured using high frequency data. Realised semivariances are shown to have important predictive qualities for future market volatility. The theory of these new measures is spelt out, drawing on some new results from probability theory.
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Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number
2008fe01.
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Length: 21
Date of creation: 2008Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2008fe01Contact details of provider: Email: Web page: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Maxine Collett).
Keywords: Market frictions ; Quadratic variation ; Realised variance ; Semimartingale ; Semivariance ; Other versions of this item:
Paper Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Silja Kinnebrock & Neil Shephard, 2008.
"Measuring downside risk - realised semivariance ,"
Economics Series Working Papers
382, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Silja Kinnebrock & Neil Shephard, 2008.
"Measuring downside risk — realised semivariance ,"
CREATES Research Papers
2008-42, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
[Downloadable!] Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Silja Kinnebrock & Neil Shephard, 2008.
"Measuring downside risk-realised semivariance ,"
Economics Papers
2008-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
[Downloadable!] This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports :
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Zhou, Bin, 1996.
"High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-52, January.
Babsiri, Mohamed El & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2001.
"Contemporaneous asymmetry in GARCH processes ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 257-294, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Ole E Barndorff-Nielsen & Peter Hansen & Asger Lunde & Neil Shephard, 2006.
"Designing realised kernels to measure the ex-post variation of equity prices in the presence of noise ,"
OFRC Working Papers Series
2006fe05, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2006.
"Designing realised kernels to measure the ex-post variation of equity prices in the presence of noise ,"
Economics Series Working Papers
264, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & Neil Shephard, 2006.
"Designing realised kernels to measure the ex-post variation of equity prices in the presence of noise ,"
Economics Papers
2006-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
[Downloadable!] Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & Neil Shephard, 2008.
"Designing Realized Kernels to Measure the ex post Variation of Equity Prices in the Presence of Noise ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1481-1536, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Silja Kinnebrock & Mark Podolskij, 2007.
"A Note on the Central Limit Theorem for Bipower Variation of General Functions ,"
OFRC Working Papers Series
2007fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
[Downloadable!]
Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006.
"Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation ,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics ,
Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
" Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2004.
"Analytical Evaluation Of Volatility Forecasts ,"
International Economic Review ,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1079-1110, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008.
"Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics ,"
Review of Financial Studies ,
Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005.
"A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data ,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Laurent, Sebastien & Peters, Jean-Philippe, 2002.
" G@RCH 2.2: An Ox Package for Estimating and Forecasting Various ARCH Models ,"
Journal of Economic Surveys ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 447-85, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992.
"Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances ,"
Econometric Reviews ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Engle, Robert F. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006.
"A multiple indicators model for volatility using intra-daily data ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 3-27.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004.
"Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps ,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics ,
Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Mao, James C T, 1970.
"Survey of Capital Budgeting: Theory and Practice ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 349-60, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007.
"Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling and Forecasting of Return Volatility ,"
CREATES Research Papers
2007-18, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2005.
"Roughing it Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling and Forecasting of Return Volatility ,"
NBER Working Papers
11775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007.
"Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, 04.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Ole BARNDORFF-NIELSEN & Svend Erik GRAVERSEN & Jean JACOD & Mark PODOLSKIJ & Neil SHEPHARD, 2004.
"A Central Limit Theorem for Realised Power and Bipower Variations of Continuous Semimartingales ,"
OFRC Working Papers Series
2004fe21, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Jean Jacod & Yingying Li & Per A. Mykland & Mark Podolskij & Mathias Vetter, 2007.
"Microstructure Noise in the Continuous Case: The Pre-Averaging Approach - JLMPV-9 ,"
CREATES Research Papers
2007-43, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
[Downloadable!]
Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2006.
"Downside Risk ,"
Review of Financial Studies ,
Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1191-1239.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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