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Long-term demand and supply of non-ferrous mineral resources by a mineral balance model

Author

Listed:
  • Koji Tokimatsu

    (Tokyo Institute of Technology
    National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology)

  • Shinsuke Murakami

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Tsuyoshi Adachi

    (Akita University)

  • Ryota Ii

    (Pacific Consultants, Co. Ltd)

  • Rieko Yasuoka

    (Systems Research Center, Co. Ltd)

  • Masahiro Nishio

    (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology)

Abstract

We develop a mineral resource balance model to assess sustainable supply for such as copper, zinc, and lead up to 2150. This constitutes from a demand projection model whose outputs are exogenously given to a supply-side model, which expresses simplified structure of material flow and stock, from ore production by mining, smelting, and refining, new and old scraps, manufacturing final product to satisfy the final demand, stocks for in-use and out-of-use, disposal, and recycling. Our model is distinct in the long term and global level, modeling both supply and demand sides in various mineral resources by applying linear programming to minimize discounted sum of overall system cost of the resources. Results indicate that the demand of copper, zinc, and lead in 2100 increases by some two to five times compared with those in 2010. This is similar level compared with those in existing studies that employed different modeling approaches. Mineral production from ore in copper and lead peaks out around 2040 satisfying the demand by scrap recycling, while zinc ore production shows continuous increase because of difficulties in metal recovery. Development of new ore deposit and promotion of scrap recycling are strongly demanded to meet the final demand projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Koji Tokimatsu & Shinsuke Murakami & Tsuyoshi Adachi & Ryota Ii & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio, 2017. "Long-term demand and supply of non-ferrous mineral resources by a mineral balance model," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(3), pages 193-206, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:30:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s13563-017-0109-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s13563-017-0109-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Larona S. Teseletso & Tsuyoshi Adachi, 2023. "Future availability of mineral resources: ultimate reserves and total material requirement," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 189-206, June.
    2. Galán-Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio & Labeaga, José M. & Martín-García, Rodrigo, 2023. "Cointegration between high base metals prices and backwardation: Getting ready for the metals super-cycle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Dou Shiquan & Xu Deyi, 2023. "The security of critical mineral supply chains," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(3), pages 401-412, September.
    4. Tokimatsu, Koji & Höök, Mikael & McLellan, Benjamin & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Murakami, Shinsuke & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2018. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: Exploring metal requirements and the well-below 2 °C target with 100 percent renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1158-1175.
    5. Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

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