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Modelling Global Wolfram Mining, Secondary Extraction, Supply, Stocks-in-Society, Recycling, Market Price and Resources, Using the WORLD6 System Dynamics Model

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  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup

    (University of Iceland)

  • Anna Hulda Olafsdottir

    (University of Iceland)

  • Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir

    (University of Iceland)

Abstract

The extraction, supply, market price and recycling of the metal wolfram (W) were modelled using a wolfram submodule developed for the WORLD6 system dynamics model. The resource estimates made for wolfram resulted in significantly larger estimates than earlier studies (URR = 28 million ton in 2015, where at least 24 million ton is in primary ore and about 2 million ton is secondary resources). The model can well reconstruct the observed extraction rates and price histories. The model outputs demonstrate that wolfram is a finite resource and that there is a risk for supply scarcity, unless the degree of recycling will be significantly improved from the present level. The model outputs suggest that there will be a soft scarcity around 2030 and hard scarcity after 2200. When pictured as supply per person per year or stocks-in-use, there will be a supply problem in the distant future. There are substitutes for some applications, but for some key uses there are none that are optimal. Without wolfram, several advanced technologies seen as important at the present time will become difficult to produce.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir, 2017. "Modelling Global Wolfram Mining, Secondary Extraction, Supply, Stocks-in-Society, Recycling, Market Price and Resources, Using the WORLD6 System Dynamics Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:bioerq:v:2:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s41247-017-0028-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s41247-017-0028-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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