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Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy

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  • Davidsson, Simon
  • Grandell, Leena
  • Wachtmeister, Henrik
  • Höök, Mikael

Abstract

Several recent studies have proposed fast transitions to energy systems based on renewable energy technology. Many of them dismiss potential physical constraints and issues with natural resource supply, and do not consider the growth rates of the individual technologies needed or how the energy systems are to be sustained over longer time frames. A case study is presented modelling potential growth rates of the wind energy required to reach installed capacities proposed in other studies, taking into account the expected service life of wind turbines. A sustained commissioning model is proposed as a theoretical foundation for analysing reasonable growth patterns for technologies that can be sustained in the future. The annual installation and related resource requirements to reach proposed wind capacity are quantified and it is concluded that these factors should be considered when assessing the feasibility, and even the sustainability, of fast energy transitions. Even a sustained commissioning scenario would require significant resource flows, for the transition as well as for sustaining the system, indefinitely. Recent studies that claim there are no potential natural resource barriers or other physical constraints to fast transitions to renewable energy appear inadequate in ruling out these concerns.

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  • Davidsson, Simon & Grandell, Leena & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Höök, Mikael, 2014. "Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 767-776.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:767-776
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.05.003
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    8. Elshkaki, Ayman & Graedel, T.E., 2015. "Solar cell metals and their hosts: A tale of oversupply and undersupply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 167-177.
    9. Yang, Chunmeng & Bu, Siqi & Fan, Yi & Wan, Wayne Xinwei & Wang, Ruoheng & Foley, Aoife, 2023. "Data-driven prediction and evaluation on future impact of energy transition policies in smart regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    10. Niklas Andersen & Ola Eriksson & Karl Hillman & Marita Wallhagen, 2016. "Wind Turbines’ End-of-Life: Quantification and Characterisation of Future Waste Materials on a National Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-24, November.
    11. Nassar, Nedal T. & Wilburn, David R. & Goonan, Thomas G., 2016. "Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1209-1226.
    12. Joe L. Lane & Simon Smart & Diego Schmeda‐Lopez & Ove Hoegh‐Guldberg & Andrew Garnett & Chris Greig & Eric McFarland, 2016. "Understanding constraints to the transformation rate of global energy infrastructure," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 33-48, January.
    13. Zhang, Yagang & Yang, Jingyun & Wang, Kangcheng & Wang, Zengping & Wang, Yinding, 2015. "Improved wind prediction based on the Lorenz system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 219-226.
    14. John W. Day & Christopher F. D’Elia & Adrian R. H. Wiegman & Jeffrey S. Rutherford & Charles A. S. Hall & Robert R. Lane & David E. Dismukes, 2018. "The Energy Pillars of Society: Perverse Interactions of Human Resource Use, the Economy, and Environmental Degradation," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, March.
    15. Gladkykh, Ganna & Spittler, Nathalie & Davíðsdóttir, Brynhildur & Diemer, Arnaud, 2018. "Steady state of energy: Feedbacks and leverages for promoting or preventing sustainable energy system development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 121-131.
    16. Koji Tokimatsu & Shinsuke Murakami & Tsuyoshi Adachi & Ryota Ii & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio, 2017. "Long-term demand and supply of non-ferrous mineral resources by a mineral balance model," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(3), pages 193-206, October.
    17. Tokimatsu, Koji & Wachtmeister, Henrik & McLellan, Benjamin & Davidsson, Simon & Murakami, Shinsuke & Höök, Mikael & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2°C target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 494-509.
    18. Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2017. "Material requirements and availability for multi-terawatt deployment of photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 574-582.
    19. Friedrich-W. Wellmer & Roland W. Scholz, 2017. "Putting Phosphorus First: The Need to Know and Right to Know Call for a Revised Hierarchy of Natural Resources," Resources, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, June.

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