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An examination of the causal relationship between savings and growth in the third world

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  • Ira Saltz

Abstract

Past studies reveal a correlation between savings and GDP growth in the Third World. Those studies hypothesize that higher rates of savings cause higher growth rates of real GDP. This paper explores an alternative hypothesis: that higher growth rates of GDP cause increased savings. Higher growth rates of income boost the rate of savings and attract more foreign savings. The difference between these two hypotheses is the direction of causality. This study investigates the direction of causality using the Engle-Granger error-correction model or the Granger causality test, whichever is appropriate. The findings support the latter hypothesis in more cases. Copyright Springer 1999

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  • Ira Saltz, 1999. "An examination of the causal relationship between savings and growth in the third world," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(1), pages 90-98, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:23:y:1999:i:1:p:90-98
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02752690
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bacha, Edmar L., 1990. "A three-gap model of foreign transfers and the GDP growth rate in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 279-296, April.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
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    1. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Olufemi B. Obembe, 2017. "Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Saving and Economic Growth in Selected African Countries (1981–2014)," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 2(1), pages 110-129, January.
    2. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Bee Wah, 2014. "A revalidation of the savings–growth nexus in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 370-377.
    3. Piotr Misztal, 2011. "The Relationship Between Savings And Economic Growth In Countries With Different Level Of Economic Development," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 7(2), pages 17-29, August.
    4. Soylu Özgür Bayram, 2019. "Do foreign direct investment and savings promote economic growth in Poland?," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 5(4), pages 3-22, December.
    5. Kafayat Amusa, 2013. "Savings and Economic Growth in Botswana: An Analysis Using Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(4), pages 200-209.
    6. Bofinger, Peter & Geißendörfer, Lisa & Haas, Thomas & Mayer, Fabian, 2021. "Discovering the True Schumpeter - New Insights into the Finance and Growth Nexus," CEPR Discussion Papers 16851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Bassam AbuAl-Foul, "undated". "The Causal Relation between Savings and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis," Economics Working Papers 06-05/2015, School of Business Administration, American University of Sharjah.
    8. Worku Gebeyehu, 2011. "Causal Links among Saving, Investment and Growth and Determinants of Saving in Sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from Ethiopia," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 19(2), November.
    9. Raphaele Chappe & Willi Semmler, 2019. "Financial Market as Driver for Disparity in Wealth Accumulation—A Receding Horizon Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 1231-1261, October.
    10. Temitope L A, 2014. "The Effects of Foreign Resource Inflow and Savings on the Economic Growth of South Africa: A VAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(3), pages 232-241.
    11. Chor Foon Tang & Kean Siang Ch’ng, 2012. "A Multivariate Analysis of the Nexus between Savings and Economic Growth in the ASEAN-5 Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 385-406, August.
    12. Shirin Akter, 2018. "Do remittances and foreign aid augment the gross savings: Bangladesh, India and Philippines perspective?," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 65(4), pages 449-463, December.
    13. Yaya KEHO, 2018. "Which comes first – savings or growth? Time series evidence from ECOWAS countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 247-254, Summer.
    14. Simelane Bongile & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2019. "The Dynamics of Savings Mobilisation in Lesotho," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 29(3), pages 92-108, September.
    15. Abbas Ali Chandio & Feng Wei & Jiang Yuansheng, 2015. "Role of savings in economic growth of Pakistan," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(12), pages 243-251, December.
    16. Chor Foon Tang & Eu Chye Tan, 2017. "Re-visiting the Savings-Led Growth Hypothesis and Its Stability in East Asian Economies," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 436-447, July.
    17. Willi Semmler & Raphaële Chappe, 2011. "The Operation of Hedge Funds: Econometric Evidence, Dynamic Modeling, and Regulatory Perspectives," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Greg N. Gregoriou & Razvan Pascalau (ed.), Financial Econometrics Modeling: Derivatives Pricing, Hedge Funds and Term Structure Models, chapter 1, pages 3-34, Palgrave Macmillan.
    18. Muhammad Fadli Hanafi & Berly Martawardaya & Andi M. Alfian Parewangi, 2014. "The Contribution of Saving and Loan onn Economic Growth, The Case of Indonesia," EcoMod2014 7238, EcoMod.

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