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Cointegration between macroeconomic factors and the exchange rate USD/CNY

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Kamran Khan

    (School of Economics, Northeast Normal University)

  • Jian-Zhou Teng

    (School of Economics, Northeast Normal University)

  • Muhammad Imran Khan

    (School of Economics, Northeast Normal University)

Abstract

This research paper investigates the effect of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate USD/CYN using yearly time series data for China economy from 1980 to 2017. ARDL bounds test approach for cointegration is applied to test the long-run relation between the dependent and the independent variables. The results of long-run ARDL indicate that gross domestic product growth and trade openness have a positive effect on the exchange rate USD/CNY while interest and inflation rates have a negative effect on the exchange rate. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that the policymakers of the Chinese government should implement vital monetary and fiscal policies to determine the less volatile and productive exchange rate for China to manage sustainable economic growth for a long time with its trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan, 2019. "Cointegration between macroeconomic factors and the exchange rate USD/CNY," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:5:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-018-0117-x
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-018-0117-x
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    2. Nansha, Kevin, 2021. "Interaction entre la croissance économique, l’inflation et le taux de change au kenya [Interaction between economic growth, inflation and exchange rate in kenya]," MPRA Paper 109246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lin, Yong & Wang, Renyu & Gong, Xingyue & Jia, Guozhu, 2022. "Cross-correlation and forecast impact of public attention on USD/CNY exchange rate: Evidence from Baidu Index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
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    5. Ranjan Aneja & Arjun, 2022. "Impact of Terms of Trade on GDP in the Context of Prebisch–Singer Theorem: Evidence from Egypt and Guinea," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(5), pages 2561-2575, October.
    6. Kartono, Agus & Febriyanti, Marina & Wahyudi, Setyanto Tri & Irmansyah,, 2020. "Predicting foreign currency exchange rates using the numerical solution of the incompressible Navier–Stokes equations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
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    8. Dennij Mandeij, 2020. "Determination of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Rupiah Against US Dollar and its Volatility: Application of Asset Approach," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 6(6), pages 323-336.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Macroeconomic factors; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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