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The cause and outcomes of the ripple effect: housing prices and transaction volume

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  • I-Chun Tsai

    (National University of Kaohsiung)

Abstract

In this study, the ripple effect in four regional housing markets in the USA (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West) was examined by analyzing housing prices, which is a method that has been primarily used in other studies, and the transfer of information in the transaction volume data of regional markets. First, the ripple index between regional housing markets was estimated using housing price and transaction volume. Findings revealed that the ripple effect in the transaction volume of regional housing markets was far more evident than that in housing prices and that the two types of ripple effect are negatively correlated. In other words, information between regional housing markets is either transferred through price or volume. In this study, monetary policy, overall economic performance, and new housing market were adopted as variables to analyze the cause and outcomes of the ripple effect. The results show that inflation stemming from an excess supply of money causes a ripple effect of rising regional housing prices. This money illusion leads contractors to believe that the housing market has increasing demand, motivating them to enter into new projects. Once these projects are completed, the increase in supply (new homes for sale) is reflected in the transaction volume of the regional housing market. In this instance, a stagnation in housing prices signifies that information is only transferred in the transaction volume. In short, the rise (housing boom) and fall (housing depression) of transaction volume affect interest rates in the mortgage market.

Suggested Citation

  • I-Chun Tsai, 2018. "The cause and outcomes of the ripple effect: housing prices and transaction volume," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(2), pages 351-373, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:61:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-018-0870-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-018-0870-9
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    Cited by:

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    4. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "A regional decomposition of US housing prices and volume: market dynamics and Portfolio diversification," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(2), pages 279-307, April.
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    9. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2019. "A Regional Decomposition of US Housing Prices and Volume: Market Dynamics and Economic Diversification Opportunities," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-06, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.

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    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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