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Anticipated vs. Unanticipated House Price Movements and Transaction Volume

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  • Arslan, Yavuz
  • Kanik, Birol
  • Köksal, Bülent

Abstract

Using data from England and Wales, we analyze the relationship between house prices and transaction volume (number of houses sold) and find that there is a negative relationship. When we decompose price changes into anticipated and unanticipated components we find that while anticipated house price changes positively affect transaction volume, unanticipated price changes have a negative effect. These findings give insights for the theories which try to explain the relationship between house prices and transaction volume. Our findings are inconsistent with the down-payment effect approach developed by Stein (1995) and with the loss aversion behavior approach discussed by Genesove and Mayer (2001). However, our results support the evidence of asymmetric decisions on the buyer and seller side documented in Case and Shiller (1988).

Suggested Citation

  • Arslan, Yavuz & Kanik, Birol & Köksal, Bülent, 2014. "Anticipated vs. Unanticipated House Price Movements and Transaction Volume," MPRA Paper 54641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54641
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Andrew & Geoffrey Meen, 2003. "House Price Appreciation, Transactions and Structural Change in the British Housing Market: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 99-116, March.
    2. Jim Clayton & Norman Miller & Liang Peng, 2010. "Price-volume Correlation in the Housing Market: Causality and Co-movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 14-40, January.
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    6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
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    11. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; expectations; transaction volume;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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