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Patterns of seasonality and tourism demand forecasting

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  • Anna Serena Vergori

    (University of Salento via per Monteroni, Italy)

Abstract

Seasonality is a phenomenon that affects the vast majority of tourist destinations. The negative aspects of seasonality have been widely discussed from economic, social and environmental points of view. On the contrary, the unreliability of tourism demand forecasts is rarely listed among the negative effects of seasonality. This is despite the importance of the quality of forecasts for the planning of economic activities. This article evaluates the impact of different patterns of seasonality on tourism demand forecasting in the light of different volume of tourism flows. With this aim in mind, the monthly tourist overnight stays in four European countries – namely Austria, Finland, Portugal and Netherlands – are analysed for the period January 1990–December 2014. Data show both one-peak and two-peak seasonality. Results highlight that the stronger seasonality is, the less reliable forecasts are.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Serena Vergori, 2017. "Patterns of seasonality and tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1011-1027, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:23:y:2017:i:5:p:1011-1027
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816616656418
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kaijian He & Don Wu & Yingchao Zou, 2022. "Tourist Arrival Forecasting Using Multiscale Mode Learning Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-12, August.
    2. Sara Dalir & Abror Mahamadaminov & Hossein GT Olya, 2021. "Airbnb and taxation: Developing a seasonal tax system," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(2), pages 365-378, March.
    3. Susana Borrego-Domínguez & Fernando Isla-Castillo & Mercedes Rodríguez-Fernández, 2022. "Determinants of Tourism Demand in Spain: A European Perspective from 2000–2020," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, November.
    4. Anna Serena Vergori & Serena Arima, 2022. "Transport modes and tourism seasonality in Italy: By air or by road?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 583-598, May.
    5. Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio & Turrión Prats, Judith, 2018. "Tourism seasonality worldwide," Working Papers 2072/351586, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    6. Gang Xie & Xin Li & Yatong Qian & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism demand with KPCA-based web search indexes," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 721-743, June.

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