IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/urv/wpaper/2072-351586.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tourism seasonality worldwide

Author

Listed:
  • Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio
  • Turrión Prats, Judith

Abstract

Tourism seasonality is generally seen as a problem for most of the main destinations in the world, particularly from the point of view of sustainability. Despite its importance, no reasonably homogeneous international measurement of seasonality is yet available on the global scale. Using the best UNWTO data, the paper uses the Coefficient of Variation (CV), over the period 2008–2013 and for the main destinations, as a measure of tourism seasonality. In addition to the descriptive results, the paper includes a mixed effects panel data model, which allows us to investigate some reasonable main global determinants of seasonality. The key results obtained may be summarized as follows. Firstly, the world seasonality shows an inverted U pattern, trending upwards until 2011 and subsequently descending. Secondly, in contrast to other regions, the highest (and increasing) seasonality is concentrated in the Mediterranean countries. Lastly, in terms of empirical determinants, geographical location, and the income of the major markets of origin are globally significant variables. We believe that these results, beyond their academic value, may be useful for policy-makers. Keywords: Seasonality; concentration; measurement; determinants; panel data; worldwide

Suggested Citation

  • Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio & Turrión Prats, Judith, 2018. "Tourism seasonality worldwide," Working Papers 2072/351586, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/351586
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2072/351586
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tingzhen Chen & Philip L. Pearce, 2012. "Research Note: Seasonality Patterns in Asian Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 1105-1115, October.
    2. Judith Turrión-Prats & Juan Antonio Duro, 2017. "Tourist seasonality in Catalonia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(4), pages 846-853, June.
    3. Cuccia, Tiziana & Rizzo, Ilde, 2011. "Tourism seasonality in cultural destinations: Empirical evidence from Sicily," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 589-595.
    4. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-1398, November.
    5. Connell, Joanne & Page, Stephen J. & Meyer, Denny, 2015. "Visitor attractions and events: Responding to seasonality," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 283-298.
    6. Ben D. MacArthur & Richard O. C. Oreffo, 2005. "Bridging the gap," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7021), pages 19-19, January.
    7. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2002. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers FNU-15, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2003.
    8. N. Kulendran, 1996. "Modelling Quarterly Tourist Flows to Australia Using Cointegration Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 2(3), pages 203-222, September.
    9. Jae H. Kim, 1999. "Forecasting Monthly Tourist Departures from Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 5(3), pages 277-291, September.
    10. María Antonia García Sastre & Margarita Alemany Hormaeche & Miguel Trías Villar, 2015. "Are Regional Political Decisions the Key Element in Reducing Seasonal Variation in Tourism? The Case of the Balearic Islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(6), pages 1207-1219, December.
    11. A. Colin Cameron & Pravin K. Trivedi, 2010. "Microeconometrics Using Stata, Revised Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number musr, March.
    12. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2018. "Do economic crises lead tourists to closer destinations? Italy at the time of the Great Recession," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(2), pages 369-386, June.
    13. Fernández-Morales, Antonio & Cisneros-Martínez, José David & McCabe, Scott, 2016. "Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-190.
    14. Francisco J. Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2001. "Panel Data and Tourism: A Case Study of Tenerife," Tourism Economics, , vol. 7(1), pages 75-88, March.
    15. Panos Mourdoukoutas, 1988. "Seasonal Employment, Seasonal Unemployment and Unemployment Compensation: The Case of the Tourist Industry of the Greek Islands," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 315-329, July.
    16. Nils Karl Sorensen, 2001. "Modelling the seasonality of hotel nights in Denmark by county and nationality," ERSA conference papers ersa01p159, European Regional Science Association.
    17. Angel Bujosa & Jaume Rosselló, 2013. "Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 363-375, March.
    18. Lo Magno, Giovanni L. & Ferrante, Mauro & De Cantis, Stefano, 2017. "A new index for measuring seasonality: A transportation cost approach," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 55-65.
    19. Konstantinos Andriotis, 2005. "Seasonality in Crete: Problem or a Way of Life?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(2), pages 207-224, June.
    20. Atkinson, Anthony B., 1970. "On the measurement of inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-263, September.
    21. Douglas Jeffrey & Robin R. D. Barden, 1999. "An Analysis of the Nature, Causes and Marketing Implications of Seasonality in the Occupancy Performance of English Hotels," Tourism Economics, , vol. 5(1), pages 69-91, March.
    22. Anna Serena Vergori, 2017. "Patterns of seasonality and tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1011-1027, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mtapuri, Oliver & Giampiccoli, Andrea, 2021. "Contextualing A Tourism Development Alternative For Argentina: A Proposal For Community Based Diffused Tourism," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 9(2), pages 138-155.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Turrión Prats, Judith & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2017. "Seasonality Determinants for the Main Markets in Spain," Working Papers 2072/306517, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    2. Paz Rico & Bernardí Cabrer-Borrás & Francisco Morillas-Jurado, 2021. "Seasonality in Tourism: Do Senior Programs Mitigate It?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-27, August.
    3. Turrión Prats, Judith & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2017. "The Seasonality of Demand in Spanish Tourist Municipalities: Analysis and Determinants," Working Papers 2072/306518, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    4. Dimitrios Tsiotas & Thomas Krabokoukis & Serafeim Polyzos, 2021. "Detecting Tourism Typologies of Regional Destinations Based on Their Spatio-Temporal and Socioeconomic Performance: A Correlation-Based Complex Network Approach for the Case of Greece," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, February.
    5. Dimitrios TSIOTAS & Thomas KRABOKOUKIS & Serafeim POLYZOS, 2020. "Detecting Interregional Patterns In Tourism Seasonality Of Greece: A Principal Components Analysis Approach," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 91-112, June.
    6. Anna Serena Vergori & Serena Arima, 2022. "Transport modes and tourism seasonality in Italy: By air or by road?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 583-598, May.
    7. Sara Dalir & Abror Mahamadaminov & Hossein GT Olya, 2021. "Airbnb and taxation: Developing a seasonal tax system," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(2), pages 365-378, March.
    8. Turrión Prats, Judith, 2016. "Tourist Seasonality and the Role of Markets," Working Papers 2072/290755, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    9. Yeongbae Choe & Hany Kim & Hyo-Jae Joun, 2019. "Differences in Tourist Behaviors across the Seasons: The Case of Northern Indiana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-16, August.
    10. Antonio Fern�ndez-Morales, 2017. "Tourism Mobility In Time And Seasonality In Tourism," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 71(2), pages 21-30, April-Jun.
    11. Anna Serena Vergori, 2017. "Patterns of seasonality and tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1011-1027, August.
    12. Thomas KRABOKOUKIS & Dimitrios TSIOTAS & Serafeim POLYZOS, 2021. "Detecting Determinants In Tourist Seasonality Of Greece: A Binary Logistic Regression Approach," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(1), pages 5-19, February.
    13. Thomas KRABOKOUKIS & Serafeim POLYZOS, 2022. "Drawing An Indicator Of Tourism Competitiveness And Examining Its Relationship With Tourism Seasonality For The Greek Prefectures," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 55-70, June.
    14. Nidal Alzboun, 2018. "Measuring Seasonality of Tourism Demand in Petra, Jordan (2006-2017)," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(9), pages 131-131, September.
    15. Fernández-Morales, Antonio & Cisneros-Martínez, José David & McCabe, Scott, 2016. "Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-190.
    16. Luigi Grossi & Mauro Mussini, 2019. "Seasonality in tourist flows: Decomposing and testing changes in seasonal concentration," Working Papers 16/2019, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    17. Dehui Christina Geng & John L. Innes & Wanli Wu & Weiwei Wang & Guangyu Wang, 2021. "Seasonal Variation in Visitor Satisfaction and Its Management Implications in Banff National Park," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, February.
    18. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Tobias D. Ketterer, 2012. "Do Local Amenities Affect The Appeal Of Regions In Europe For Migrants?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 535-561, October.
    19. Kenichi Shimamoto, 2019. "Examining the Seasonality of Travel-Related Expenditure by Travel Purpose: The Case of Japan," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 12(1), pages 55-72.
    20. Luke Lunhua Mao & James J Zhang & Daniel P Connaughton, 2015. "Determinants of Demand for Sports Lottery: Insights from a Multilevel Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(8), pages 973-987, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/351586. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ariadna Casals (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deurves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.