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Non-linear Effect of Real Exchange Rate Variability with Macroeconomic Variable on Non-Petroleum Commodities of India– US Trade

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  • Mohini Gupta
  • Sakshi Varshney

Abstract

This article aims to explore the asymmetric influence of real exchange rate volatility on India–US trade commodity-wise. In this study, the assumption of symmetric relation is neglected and assessed on the asymmetric effect of real exchange rate volatility on 90 commodities distributed under 6 industries. This study verifies short-run and long-run asymmetry effects, the short-run effect in 21 Indian exporting commodities and 19 Indian importing commodities. However, the short-run effect lasting onto the long run in 16 exporting commodities and 27 importing commodities strongly supports the J-curve. Also, non-linear causality is witnessed in this study running from real exchange rate variability to export trade and import trade. The empirical analyses explain that commodities will benefit the export or import growth with the depreciation of exchange rate or discouraging with the appreciation of exchange rate. The findings of the study provide a view for policy making. JEL Codes: C22, F1, F14, F31, O19

Suggested Citation

  • Mohini Gupta & Sakshi Varshney, 2023. "Non-linear Effect of Real Exchange Rate Variability with Macroeconomic Variable on Non-Petroleum Commodities of India– US Trade," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 58(2), pages 289-328, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:58:y:2023:i:2:p:289-328
    DOI: 10.1177/00157325221077004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate volatility; non-linear causality; asymmetry; trade; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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