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The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia

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  • Gan-Ochir Doojav

Abstract

For resource-rich developing economies, the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance may differ from the standard findings depending on country specific characteristics. This article employs vector error correction model to examine the effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Mongolia, a resource-rich developing country. Empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in both short and long run. In particular, the well-known Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the long run; however, there is no evidence of the classic J -curve effects in the short run. The results suggest that the exchange rate flexibility may help to deal effectively with current account deficits and exchange rate risk. JEL Classification: C32, C51, F14, F32

Suggested Citation

  • Gan-Ochir Doojav, 2018. "The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(4), pages 211-224, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:53:y:2018:i:4:p:211-224
    DOI: 10.1177/0015732518797184
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    3. Parray Waseem A. & Wani Suadat H. & Yasmin Effat, 2022. "Determinants of the Trade Balance in India. Evidence from a Post-Liberalisation Period," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(4), pages 16-37, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade balance model; exchange rate adjustment; Marshall–Lerner condition; J-curve; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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