Exchange rate policy and trade balance: a cointegration analysis of the Argentine experience since 1962
AbstractUsing multivariate cointegration tests for nonstationary data and vector error correction models, this article examines the determinants of trade balance (TB) for Argentina over the last forty to fifty years taking into account that the short-run impacts of currency depreciation on the TB behaviour may differ from the long-run effects. Our investigation confirms the existence of long-run relationships among TB, real exchange rate (RER) and foreign and domestic incomes for Argentina during different RER management policies. Based on the estimations, the Marshall-Lerner condition is checked and, by means of impulse response functions, we trace the effect of a one-time shock to the RER on the TB not finding support for a J-curve pattern in the short-run.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 20 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Matesanz Gómez, David & Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe, 2006. "Exchange rate policy and trade balance. A cointegration analysis of the argentine experience since 1962," MPRA Paper 151, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
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