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An Analysis Of Domestic And External Shocks On Romanian Economy Using A Dsge Model

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  • Caraiani, Petre

    ()
    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

Abstract

In this paper, I study the impact of the domestic and external shocks on the Romanian economy. I use an open economy DSGE model and estimate it for the Romanian economy using Bayesian techniques. The impact of the domestic shocks is moderate but not persistent. The Euro Area demand and interest rate shocks have a moderate impact on the domestic output. The Euro Area supply and interest rate shocks have significant and persistent impacts on the domestic inflation. I also perform a long-run variance decomposition of the domestic variables.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 5 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 100-114

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:3:p:100-114

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Related research

Keywords: DSGE models; small open economy; Romania; Euro Area; monetary policy.;

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References

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  1. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
  2. Pau Rabanal & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, 2003. "Comparing New Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach," Working Paper 2003-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Scutaru, Cornelia & Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2005. "Output Gap And Shocks Dynamics. The Case Of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 2(4), pages 25-43.
  7. Pelinescu, Elena & Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu, 2005. "Impulse Analyses Of The Romanian Inflation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 2(4), pages 5-24.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C99-107, University of California at Berkeley.
  9. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2003. "Monetary policy in a low pass-through environment," Working Paper Series 0227, European Central Bank.
  12. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "A Bayesian Look at the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 313-382 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  14. Martin Melecky & Daniel Buncic, 2005. "An Estimated, New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," Macroeconomics 0511026, EconWPA.
  15. Caraiani, Petre, 2007. "An Estimated New Keynesian Model for Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(4), pages 114-123, December.
  16. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2001. "Evolution Of Inflation-Unemployment Relationship In The Perspective Of Romania’S Accession To Eu," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-23, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Petre Caraiani, 2009. "An Estimation of Output Gap in Romanian Economy Using the DSGE Approach," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2009(4), pages 366-379.
  2. Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "A Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe," Working Papers 185, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

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