IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ecoint/0911.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Spillover Effect of Exports: An Analysis of Caribbean SIDs

Author

Listed:
  • Hosein, Roger

    (The University of the West Indies, Department of Economics, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago)

  • Satnarine-Singh, Nirvana

    (The University of the West Indies, Department of Economics, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago)

  • Saridakis, George

    (The University of Kent, Business School, United Kingdom)

Abstract

The paper empirically examines the degree to which exports are productivity enhancing in fourteen Caribbean Community (CARICOM) states. To do so, exports are included in a modified production function and a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is specified and estimated using a Common Correlated Effects (CCE) estimator to determine the spillover effect of the export sector to the non-export sectors in these economies. The results indicate that there is a crowding out effect, such that as exports increases, non-export Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreases. L'effetto spillover delle esportazioni: studio del caso Caraibi Questo articolo esamina in quale misura le esportazioni stimolano la produttività in quattordici stati della comunità caraibica (CARICOM). A questo fine le esportazioni sono incluse in una funzione di produzione modificata ed in un modello ARDL ad intervallo autoregressivo distribuito. Per determinare l’effetto spillover delle esportazioni sugli altri settori viene utilizzato un metodo Common Correlated Effects (CCE). I risultati indicano che c’è un effetto spiazzamento per cui quando l’export aumenta la quota di PIL generata dagli altri settori diminuisce.

Suggested Citation

  • Hosein, Roger & Satnarine-Singh, Nirvana & Saridakis, George, 2022. "The Spillover Effect of Exports: An Analysis of Caribbean SIDs," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 75(1), pages 1-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0911
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://iei1946.it/upload/rivista_articoli/allegati/436_satnarine-singh-et-alricfinal.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. HOSEIN, Roger & DEONANAN, Regan & EVANS, Kimbert, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Economic Growth in SIDS: Evidence from Saint Lucia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(1), pages 47-76.
    2. Bernard, Andrew B. & Bradford Jensen, J., 1999. "Exceptional exporter performance: cause, effect, or both?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Mazur I. & Sapachuk Y., 2009. "The reasons of the financial crisis under globalization," Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics. Вісник Киiвського нацiонального унiверситету iм. Тараса Шевченка. Серiя: Економiка, CyberLeninka;Издательско-полиграфический центр «Киевский университет», issue 109, pages 9-13.
    4. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries," Post-Print hal-00594797, HAL.
    5. Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2018. "Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries. The role of exports and global value chains," NBP Working Papers 283, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. David Greenaway & David Sapsford, 1994. "What does liberalisation do for exports and growth?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(1), pages 152-174, March.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    8. Kravis, Irving B, 1970. "Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 80(323), pages 850-872, December.
    9. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    10. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 77-93, April.
    11. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 828-854.
    12. Purna Chandra Parida & Pravakar Sahoo, 2007. "Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 155-175.
    13. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    14. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    15. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    16. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    17. Ana Paula Ribeiro & Vitor Carvalho & Paula Santos, 2016. "Export-Led Growth in the EU: Where and What to Export?," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 319-344, August.
    18. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Post-Print halshs-00512159, HAL.
    19. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    20. P. K. Mishra, 2011. "The Dynamics of Relationship between exports and economic growth in India," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 4(2), pages 53-70, August.
    21. Otmar Issing, 2009. "Some Lessons from the Financial Market Crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 431-444, December.
    22. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    23. Jacopo Carmassi & Daniel Gros & Stefano Micossi, 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Cures," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 977-996, November.
    24. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    25. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Mohtadi, Hamid & Shabsigh, Ghiath, 1991. "Exports, growth and causality in LDCs : A re-examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 405-415, October.
    26. Alesina, Alberto & Spolaore, Enrico & Wacziarg, Romain, 2005. "Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1499-1542, Elsevier.
    27. Ignazio Visco, 2009. "The financial crisis and Economists' forecasting," BANCARIA, Bancaria Editrice, vol. 3, pages 3-22, March.
    28. Howard Michael, 2002. "Causality Between Exports, Imports and Income In Trinidad and Tobago," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 97-106.
    29. Barry Bosworth & Aaron Flaaen, 2009. "Financial Crisis American Style," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 8(3), pages 146-170, Fall.
    30. Lewis, W Arthur, 1979. "The Dual Economy Revisited," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 47(3), pages 211-229, September.
    31. Fajana, Olufemi, 1979. "Trade and growth: The Nigerian experience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-78, January.
    32. Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
    33. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Post-Print hal-00488679, HAL.
    34. Subrata Ghatak & Stephen Price, 1997. "Export composition and economic growth: Cointegration and causality evidence for India," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 538-553, September.
    35. Ramesh Chandra, 2003. "Reinvestigating export-led growth in India using a multivariate cointegration framework," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 37(1), pages 73-86, September.
    36. Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 406-420.
    37. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1988. "Export-Promoting Trade Strategy: Issues and Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 3(1), pages 27-57, January.
    38. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    39. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "The Financial Crisis as an Overshooting Phenomenon," WIFO Working Papers 336, WIFO.
    40. Briguglio, Lino, 1995. "Small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1615-1632, September.
    41. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Devereux, Michael P. & Hassler, John & Jenkinson, Tim & Saint-Paul, Gilles & Sinn, Hans-Werner & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vives, Xavier, 2009. "The financial crisis," Munich Reprints in Economics 20099, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    42. Dierk Herzer, 2007. "How does trade composition affect productivity? Evidence for Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 909-912.
    43. Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2019. "Export‐led growth and its determinants: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(7), pages 1994-2025, July.
    44. Dodaro, Santo, 1991. "Comparative advantage, trade and growth: Export-Led growth revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(9), pages 1153-1165, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    2. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    3. Alper Aslan & Ebru Topcu, 2018. "The Relationship between Export and Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Turkish Sectors," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, April.
    4. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    5. Abhijit Sharma & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2003. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Some Empirical Evidence (1971-2001)," Working Papers 2003004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    6. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    7. Jean-François Hoarau & Nicolas Lucic, 2022. "Are real merchandise imports per capita a good predictor for the standard of living for the small island world: Testing for the imports-led growth and the growth-led imports hypotheses in panels over ," TEPP Working Paper 2022-16, TEPP.
    8. Asmawi Hashim & Norimah Rambeli & Norasibah Abdul Jalil & Normala Zulkifli & Emilda Hashim & Noor Al-Huda Abdul Karim, 2019. "Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(5), pages 9-19, December.
    9. Subrata Ghatak & Chris Milner & Utku Utkulu, 1997. "Exports, export composition and growth : cointegration and causality evidence for Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 213-223.
    10. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Testing Export‐Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(4), pages 483-496, July.
    11. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Three-Way Linkages Between Export, Import And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Tunisia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 13-53, December.
    12. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.
    13. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    14. Fadzil, Atikah & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does export lead growth? evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 109290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Turan Subasat, 2003. "Does the Dollar Index Really Measure Outward Orientation?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 309-326.
    16. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    17. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2004. "Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 563-581.
    18. NUSHIWAT, Munther, 2008. "Exports And Economic Growth A Re-Examination Of The Causality Relation In Six Countries, 1981-2005," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 5-12.
    19. Vianna, Andre C. & Mollick, Andre V., 2021. "Threshold effects of terms of trade on Latin American growth," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    20. Sushanta K. Mallick, 2002. "Determinants of long-term growth in India: a Keynesian approach," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 2(4), pages 306-324, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exports; Productivity; CARICOM States; Caribbean; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Procopio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacogit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.