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Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework

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  • Jim Love
  • Ramesh Chandra

Abstract

Most time-series studies in the area of export-led growth adopt a bivariate framework and neglect the role of terms of trade. Because the terms of trade have an important bearing on export earnings and income, the underlying models of these studies may have been misspecified. This study is the first to adopt a multivariate framework for South Asia as a region; and by including the terms of trade as an additional variable it tries to correct the misspecification bias of earlier studies. The evidence suggests bidirectional causality between real exports and real income in India, export-led growth in Pakistan and a no-causality result for Sri Lanka. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester, 2004.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 72 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
Pages: 483-496

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Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:72:y:2004:i:4:p:483-496

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Cited by:
  1. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Pervaz, Azeem & Ahmad, Khalil, 2011. "Exports-led growth hypothesis in Pakistan: further evidence," MPRA Paper 33617, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Sep 2011.
  2. Chaudhry, Azam & Bukhari, Syed Kalim Hyder, 2013. "A structural VAR analysis of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on Pakistan's textile exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 302-315.
  3. Tronzano, Marco, 2010. "Reassessing the Dynamic Links between Trade and Growth: New Empirical Evidence from India - Un riesame delle relazioni tra commercio estero e crescita economica:nuova evidenza empirica per l’India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 63(2), pages 217-244.
  4. Logan Rangasamy, 2009. "Exports and economic growth: The case of South Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 603-617.
  5. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2012. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," FIW Working Paper series 084, FIW.
  6. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Houda Ben Haj Boubaker, 2011. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Tunisia," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 6-21, February.
  7. Judith A. Clarke & Mukesh Ralhan, 2005. "Direct and Indirect Causality Between Exports and Economic Output for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Horizon Matters," Econometrics Working Papers 0512, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  8. Anwesha Aditya & Rajat Acharyya, 2012. "Does What Countries Export Matter? The Asian And Latin American Experience," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 47-74, September.
  9. Tronzano, Marco, 2011. "“Finance and Growth: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence for the Indian Economy” - Finanza e crescita: un riesame dell’evidenza empirica nel caso dell’India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 329-364.
  10. Akmal, Muhammad Shahbaz & Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Muhammad, 2009. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," MPRA Paper 16043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Wizarat, Shahida & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2013. "Trade-led growth hypothesis: An empirical analysis of South Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 654-660.
  12. Zahid Asghar, 2011. "A Structural Approach for Testing Causality," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 3(2), pages 1-12, September.
  13. Greenwell Collins Matchaya & Pius Chilonda & Sibusiso Nhelengethwa, 2013. "International Trade and Income in Malawi: A Co-integration and Causality Approach," International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research (IJESAR), Technological Educational Institute (TEI) of Kavala, Greece, vol. 6(2), pages 125-147, September.

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