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Causality Between Exports, Imports and Income In Trinidad and Tobago

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  • Howard Michael
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    Abstract

    This study examines the relationship between exports, imports and income in the economy of Trinidad and Tobago, using the methodology of Granger causality and error correction modeling. Our results show that there is unidirectional Granger causation from exports to income (GDP), and bidirectional causation between exports and imports and imports and income. The Economy of Trinidad and Tobago is a petroleum exporting economy where oil-export booms raise income levels, but this is usually followed by a slump. The bivariate models should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of omitted variable bias. [F14, C22]

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Economic Journal.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 97-106

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:16:y:2002:i:4:p:97-106

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    1. Michael Dueker & Richard Startz, 1998. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation Of Fractional Cointegration With An Application To U.S. And Canadian Bond Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 420-426, August.
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    7. T. Chang & W. Fang & W. Liu & Thompson Henry, 2000. "Exports, Imports and Income in Taiwan: An Examination of the Export Led Growth Hypothesis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 151-160.
    8. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    9. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Akmal, Muhammad Shahbaz & Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Muhammad, 2009. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," MPRA Paper 16043, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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