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A Perspective on Unit Root and Cointegration in Applied Macroeconomics

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  • Razzak, Weshah

Abstract

I discuss econometric issues of high relevance to economists in central banks whose job is to interpret the permanency of shocks and provide policy advice to policymakers. Trend, unit root, and persistence are difficult to interpret. There are numerous econometric tests, which vary in their power and usefulness. I provide a set of strategies on dealing with macro time series.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1970/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1970.

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Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision: 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1970

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Keywords: Unit root; trend; persistence; cointegration;

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References

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  1. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "On the Interpretation of Near Random-Walk Behavior in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Critical Issues," NBER Working Papers 4368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-59, October.
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  5. Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Perron, P., 1986. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence From a New Approach," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 8650, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Guisan, M.Carmen, 2004. "A Comparison of Causality Tests Applied to the Bilateral Relationship between Consumption and GDP in the USA and Mexico," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 115-130.
  9. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  10. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Estimation of a non-invertible moving average process : The case of overdifferencing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 199-224, September.
  11. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1990. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 90-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  12. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  13. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
  14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  15. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  16. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 18, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  18. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  19. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1992. "The uncertain unit root in real GNP," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 193, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  21. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
  22. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C26-C52, March.
  23. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  24. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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Cited by:
  1. Razzak Weshah A. & Bentour El M., 2013. "Do Developing Countries Benefit from Foreign Direct Investments? An Analysis of Some Arab and Asian Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 357-388, December.

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