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Le modèle de lissage de la production par les stocks est-il valide en France ?

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  • Eric Dubois
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    Abstract

    [eng] Is the Production-Smoothing Model of Inventory Behaviour Valid for France? . by Eric Dubois. . . The production-smoothing model of inventory behaviour has been examined empirically in a series of papers drawn up after Blinder 's seminal one (1986). These papers have shown that two of its basic implication are invalidated: the variance of production exceeds the variance of demand ; the covariance between production and demand is not negative. In this paper, the empirical results found with American data are confirmed when confronted with French data. These results are apparently due to sizable disturbances in productivity. Where there is a lag in demand, the inventories play their role by smoothing production. [ger] Ist das Modell der Ausgleichung der Produktion durch die Lagerbestände für Frankreich gültig ? . von Eric Dubois.. . Das Modell der Ausgleichung der Produktion durch die Lagerbestände, das ausgehend von dem grundlegenden Artikel von Blinder (1986) in einer Reihe von Artikeln untersucht wird, kann, zum mindesten für die Vereinigten Staaten, zwei seiner empirischen Auswirkungen nicht bestätigen : die Varianz der Produktion ist stärker als die der Nachfrage und die Kovarianz zwischen Produktion und Nachfrage ist nicht negativ. Dieser Artikel bestätigt für die französischen Begebenheiten die Ergebnisse, die anhand von amerikanischen Daten gewonnen wurden. Diese Ergebnisse scheinen auf das Vorhandensein bedeutender Produktivitätsschocks zurückzugehen. Im Falle eines Nachfrageschocks erfüllen die Lagerbestände eine die Produktion ausgleichende Funktion. [spa] ¿Sigue siendo válido en Francia el modelo de suavizamiento de la producción por medio de las existencias ? . por Eric Dubois.. . El modelo de suavizamiento de la producción por medio de las existencias, estudiado en una série de artículos desde que se publicó el artículo de Blinder (1986), no permite corroborar, por lo menos en los Estados Unidos, dos de sus consecuencias empíricas : la varianza de la producción excède la varianza de la demanda y la covarianza entre producción y demanda no es negativa. En este artículo se corroboran, en el caso de Francia, los resultados obtenidos con datos norteamericanos. Los resultados parecen deberse a la existencia de graves crisis de productividad. En caso de crisis de demanda, las existencias desempeñan su función de suavizantes de la producción. [fre] Le modèle de lissage de la production par les stocks est-il valide en France ? . par Eric Dubois.. . Le modèle de lissage de la production par les stocks, étudié dans une série d'articles depuis l'article séminal de Blinder (1986), ne vérifie pas, aux Etats-Unis tout au moins, deux de ses conséquences empiriques : la variance de la production excède celle de la demande et la covariance entre production et demande n'est pas négative. Cet article confirme, sur le cas français, les résultats obtenus sur données américaines. Ces résultats semblent dus à l'existence d'importants chocs de productivité. En cas de choc de demande, les stocks jouent leur rôle de lissage de la production.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.1991.5244
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ecop_0249-4744_1991_num_99_3_5244/ecop_0249-4744_1991_num_99_3_5244.pdf?mode=light
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

    Volume (Year): 99 (1991)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 95-111

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1991_num_99_3_5244

    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1991.5244
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    2. Maccini, Louis J & Rossana, Robert J, 1984. "Joint Production, Quasi-Fixed Factors of Production, and Investement in Finished Goods Inventories," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 218-36, May.
    3. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
    4. Spanos, Aris, 1989. "Early Empirical Findings on the Consumption Function, Stylized Facts or Fiction: A Retrospective View," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 150-69, January.
    5. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "Evidence From Seven Countries on Whether Inventories Smooth Aggregate Output," NBER Working Papers 2664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jeffrey A. Miron & Stephen P. Zeldes, . "Production, Sales and the Change in Inventories: An Identity that Doesn't Add Up," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Fair, Ray C., 1989. "The production-smoothing model is alive and well," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 353-370, November.
    8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
    9. Martin S. Eichenbaum, 1990. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," NBER Working Papers 2523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 355-65, August.
    11. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    13. Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-79, September.
    14. Maccini, Louis J & Rossana, Robert J, 1981. "Investment in Finished Goods Inventories: An Analysis of Adjustment Speeds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 17-22, May.
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