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Monetary policy and prediction of variability

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  • Karel Brůna
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    Abstract

    This study presents an analysis of the sources of variability of interest rates in the money market in the context of Czech National Bank's (CNB) monetary policy. The factors in question are changes in the structural characteristics of economies in transition, changing perception of inflation risks, the inconsistency of central bank's monetary decisions and central bank's weakened credibility and uncertainty about the efficient transmission of monetary measures. The empirical analysis documents non-stationary variability of ultra short-term PRIBOR interest rates and stability of longer maturity PRIBOR interest rates. These results reflect the role of CNB in bank system liquidity management, the uncertainty about the timing of CNB's monetary policy at the changing speed of the appreciation of the crown, tendencies of overestimation of expected inflation and changing structural characteristics.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Politická ekonomie.

    Volume (Year): 2009 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 361-382

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    Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2009:y:2009:i:3:id:689:p:361-382

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    Related research

    Keywords: monetary policy; GARCH; interest rates; variability;

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