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Quantifying the Second-Round Effects of Supply-Side Shocks on Inflation

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  • Tibor Hlédik

Abstract

This paper uses a small-scale dynamic rational expectations model based on an openeconomy version of Fuhrer-Moore-type staggered wage setting to quantify the secondround effects of selected supply-side shocks and of shocks to the nominal exchange rate on wages and subsequently on inflation. In order to analyse the desired reaction of the central bank to these shocks, optimal time-consistent policy rules are derived within the presented New-Keynesian framework. The conclusions presented in the paper suggest that the second-round effects of shocks to import prices and the nominal exchange rate on inflation should not be ignored in practical policy-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Tibor Hlédik, 2004. "Quantifying the Second-Round Effects of Supply-Side Shocks on Inflation," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(2), pages 121-141.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2004:y:2004:i:2:id:235:p:121-141
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Buiter,Willem H. & Marston,Richard C., 1986. "International Economic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521337809.
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    11. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    12. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaroslava Durčáková, 2011. "Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Exchange Markets in Transitive Economies," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(4), pages 309-328.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; inflation targeting; optimal policy rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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