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Monetary Policy and the Fisher Effect

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  • Söderlind, Paul

Abstract

Historical estimates of the Fisher effect and the informational content in the yield curve may not be relevant after a change in monetary policy. This paper uses a small dynamic rational expectations model with staggered price setting to study how central bank preferences (and thereby monetary policy) affect the relation between nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, and real interest rates. The benchmark parameters, including the Federal Reserve Bank’s loss function parameters, are estimated by maximum likelihood on quarterly US data. The policy experiments include stronger inflation targeting, more active monetary policy, and a change in commitment technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1610.

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Date of creation: Mar 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1610

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Keywords: Fisher Effect; Inflation Expectations; Interest Rates; Kalman Filter Estimation; Monetary Policy;

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References

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  1. Soderlind, Paul, 1998. " Nominal Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 457-72, June.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Is the Fisher Effect for Real? A Reexamination of the Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
  4. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Moore, George R, 1995. "Monetary Policy Trade-offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 219-39, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Bill Dupor, 2002. "The Natural Rate of Q," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 96-101, May.
  2. Tibor Hlédik, 2004. "Quantifying the Second-Round Effects of Supply-Side Shocks on Inflation," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2004(2), pages 121-141.
  3. Locarno, Alberto & Massa, Massimo, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kafayat Amusa & Rangan Gupta & Shaakira Karolia & Beatrice D. Simo Kengne, 2010. "The Long-Run Impact of Inflation in South Africa," Working Papers 201029, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  5. Paul Soderlind, 2004. "What if the Fed had been an inflation nutter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1471-1473.
  6. Fahmy, Yasser A. F. & Kandil, Magda, 2003. "The Fisher effect: new evidence and implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 451-465.
  7. Dupor, Bill, 2005. "Stabilizing non-fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 727-747, May.
  8. Söderlind, Paul, 1998. "Solution and Estimation of RE Macromodels with Optimal Policy," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 256, Stockholm School of Economics.
  9. H.a. Mitchell-innes & M.j. Aziakpono & A.p. Faure, 2007. "Inflation Targeting And The Fisher Effect In South Africa: An Empirical Investigation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 693-707, December.
  10. Kam, Timothy, 2007. "Interest-rate smoothing in a two-sector small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 283-304, June.

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