Modelling the Second-Round Effects of Supply-Side Shocks on Inflation

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Modelling the Second-Round Effects of Supply-Side Shocks on Inflation

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Tibor Hledik

Abstract

Since the introduction of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic in 1998, supply-side factors have had a strong direct influence on CPI inflation on several occasions. This paper uses a small-scale dynamic rational expectations model based on an open-economy version of Fuhrer- Moore-type staggered wage setting to quantify the second-round effects of selected supply-side shocks and of shocks to the nominal exchange rate on wages and subsequently on inflation. In order to analyse the desired reaction of the central bank to these shocks, optimal time-consistent policy rules are derived within the presented New-Keynesian framework. Impulse response analyses are then carried out to demonstrate the model's dynamics under various policy rules corresponding to different loss functions of the central bank. The conclusions presented in the paper suggest that the second-round effects of shocks to import prices and the nominal exchange rate on inflation should not be ignored in practical policy-making.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2003/12.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2003/12

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2005-04-16 (All new papers)
NEP-MAC-2005-04-16 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2005-04-16 (Monetary Economics)
NEP-TRA-2005-04-16 (Transition Economics)

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "International Policy Coordination In Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Policy Coordination, pages 274-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Other versions:
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Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, . "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Blake, Andrew P & Westaway, Peter F, 1996. "Credibility and the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting Regimes," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(0), pages 28-50, Suppl..
Other versions:
- Andrew P. Blake and Peter F. Westaway, . "Credibility and the effectiveness of inflation targeting regimes," NIESR Discussion Papers 85, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Nicoletta Batini & Anthony Yates, . "Hybrid inflation and price level targeting," Bank of England working papers 135, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Batini, Nicoletta & Yates, Anthony, 2003. " Hybrid Inflation and Price-Level Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 283-300, June.
Mervyn King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? conceptual issues," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 53-91. [Downloadable!]

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Yuliya Rychalovska, 2007. "Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy in a Two-Sector Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2007/16, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
Kamil Dybczak & David Vonka & Nico van der Windt, 2008. "The effect of oil price shocks on the Czech economy," Working Papers 2008/5, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]

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