IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pop/journl/v8y2024i3p41-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Implementation of mathematics model in public health: Albanian case study

Author

Listed:
  • Besjana MEMA

    (Mediterranean University of Albania,Fakulty of Informatic, Tirane, Albania)

  • Sabina TOSUNI

    (Alexander Xhuvani University, Faculty of Medical-Technical Sciences, Elbasan, Albania)

Abstract

This article presents a detailed examination of the application of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) mathematical model in analyzing the COVID-19 pandemic in Albania. The study integrates the SIR model with real-world data, including vaccination rates and population statistics, to simulate the dynamics of the pandemic over a specified period. Our focus is on the comparison between the model's predictions and the actual epidemiological data from Albania, considering reported cases, recoveries, and fatalities. The simulation results are visualized through graphical representations, offering insights into the epidemic's progression and the effectiveness of public health interventions. This study also provides a projection for the year 2024, emphasizing the evolving nature of the pandemic and the role of mathematical modeling in public health decision-making. The comparison highlights the strengths and limitations of using the SIR model in real-world scenarios and underscores the importance of adaptive strategies in public health planning. This case study serves as an example of the critical role of mathematical models in understanding and managing public health crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Besjana MEMA & Sabina TOSUNI, 2024. "Implementation of mathematics model in public health: Albanian case study," Smart Cities and Regional Development (SCRD) Journal, Smart-EDU Hub, vol. 8(3), pages 41-54, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:pop:journl:v:8:y:2024:i:3:p:41-54
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.25019/rrh8g224
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://scrd.eu/index.php/scrd/article/view/478/440
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://scrd.eu/index.php/scrd/article/view/478
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.25019/rrh8g224?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. A. P. Heesterbeek & K. Dietz, 1996. "The concept of Ro in epidemic theory," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 50(1), pages 89-110, March.
    2. Carol Y. Lin, 2008. "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 993-993, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    2. Fabricius, Gabriel & Maltz, Alberto, 2020. "Exploring the threshold of epidemic spreading for a stochastic SIR model with local and global contacts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    3. Tyagi, Swati & Martha, Subash C. & Abbas, Syed & Debbouche, Amar, 2021. "Mathematical modeling and analysis for controlling the spread of infectious diseases," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2016. "Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1383-1403, July.
    5. Wei Zhong, 2017. "Simulating influenza pandemic dynamics with public risk communication and individual responsive behavior," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 475-495, December.
    6. De Martino, Giuseppe & Spina, Serena, 2015. "Exploiting the time-dynamics of news diffusion on the Internet through a generalized Susceptible–Infected model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 634-644.
    7. Eugenio Valdano & Davide Colombi & Chiara Poletto & Vittoria Colizza, 2023. "Epidemic graph diagrams as analytics for epidemic control in the data-rich era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Antoine Djogbenou & Christian Gouriéroux & Joann Jasiak & Paul Rilstone, 2022. "An Econometric Panel Data Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 1-3.
    9. John M Drake & Tobias S Brett & Shiyang Chen & Bogdan I Epureanu & Matthew J Ferrari & Éric Marty & Paige B Miller & Eamon B O’Dea & Suzanne M O’Regan & Andrew W Park & Pejman Rohani, 2019. "The statistics of epidemic transitions," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-14, May.
    10. Christel Kamp & Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre & Samuel Alizon, 2013. "Epidemic Spread on Weighted Networks," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Guido M. Kuersteiner & Ingmar R. Prucha, 2020. "Dynamic Spatial Panel Models: Networks, Common Shocks, and Sequential Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(5), pages 2109-2146, September.
    12. Moritz Kersting & Andreas Bossert & Leif Sörensen & Benjamin Wacker & Jan Chr. Schlüter, 2021. "Predicting effectiveness of countermeasures during the COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa using agent-based simulation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. András Schubert & Wolfgang Glänzel & Gábor Schubert, 2022. "Eponyms in science: famed or framed?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(3), pages 1199-1207, March.
    14. Ofosuhene O Apenteng & Noor Azina Ismail, 2014. "The Impact of the Wavelet Propagation Distribution on SEIRS Modeling with Delay," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-9, June.
    15. Miguel Navascués & Costantino Budroni & Yelena Guryanova, 2021. "Disease control as an optimization problem," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-32, September.
    16. Frank Daumann & Florian Follert & Werner Gleißner & Endre Kamarás & Chantal Naumann, 2021. "Political Decision Making in the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Germany from the Perspective of Risk Management," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-23, December.
    17. M Gabriela M Gomes & Marc Lipsitch & Andrew R Wargo & Gael Kurath & Carlota Rebelo & Graham F Medley & Antonio Coutinho, 2014. "A Missing Dimension in Measures of Vaccination Impacts," PLOS Pathogens, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-3, March.
    18. Wiriya Mahikul & Somkid Kripattanapong & Piya Hanvoravongchai & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Prasert Auewarakul & Wirichada Pan-ngum, 2020. "Contact Mixing Patterns and Population Movement among Migrant Workers in an Urban Setting in Thailand," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-11, March.
    19. Sterck, Olivier, 2016. "Natural resources and the spread of HIV/AIDS: Curse or blessing?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 271-278.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pop:journl:v:8:y:2024:i:3:p:41-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catalin Vrabie (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fasnsro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.