IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v8y2021i1d10.1057_s41599-021-00830-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting effectiveness of countermeasures during the COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa using agent-based simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Moritz Kersting

    (Next Generation Mobility Group, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
    Chair of Regional Management and Business Promotion, Faculty of Resource Management, HAWK University for Applied Sciences and Art
    Technical University of Dresden
    Technical University of Dresden)

  • Andreas Bossert

    (Next Generation Mobility Group, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
    Technical University of Dresden
    Technical University of Dresden
    Center of Methods in Social Sciences, Department of Social Sciences, Georg-August-University of Göttingen)

  • Leif Sörensen

    (Next Generation Mobility Group, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
    Technical University of Dresden
    Technical University of Dresden
    Thinktank of Aeronautics, Aerodynamics and Aerospace Technology)

  • Benjamin Wacker

    (Next Generation Mobility Group, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
    Department of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Applied Sciences Merseburg)

  • Jan Chr. Schlüter

    (Next Generation Mobility Group, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
    Technical University of Dresden
    Technical University of Dresden
    Institute for the Dynamics of Complex Systems, Faculty of Physics, Georg-August-University of Göttingen)

Abstract

COVID-19 has spread rapidly around the globe. While there has been a slow down of the spread in some countries, e.g., in China, the African continent is still at the beginning of a potentially wide spread of the virus. Owing to its economic strength and imbalances, South Africa is of particular relevance with regard to the drastic measures to prevent the spread of this novel coronavirus. In March 2020, South Africa imposed one of the most severe lockdowns worldwide and subsequently faced the number of infections slowing down considerably. In May 2020, this lockdown was partially relaxed and further easing of restrictions was envisaged. In July and August 2020, daily new infections peaked and declined subsequently. Lockdown measures were further relaxed. This study aims to assess the recent and upcoming measures from an epidemiological perspective. Agent-based epidemic simulations are used to depict the effects of policy measures on the further course of this epidemic. The results indicate that measures that are either lifted too early or are too lenient have no sufficient mitigating effects on infection rates. Consequently, continuous exponential infection growth rates or a second significant peak of infected people occur. These outcomes are likely to cause higher mortality rates once healthcare capacities are occupied and no longer capable to treat all severely and critically infected COVID-19 patients. In contrast, strict measures appear to be a suitable way to contain the virus. The simulations imply that the initial lockdown of 27 March 2020 was probably sufficient to slow the growth in the number of infections, but relaxing countermeasures might allow for a second severe outbreak of COVID-19 in our investigated simulation region of Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality.

Suggested Citation

  • Moritz Kersting & Andreas Bossert & Leif Sörensen & Benjamin Wacker & Jan Chr. Schlüter, 2021. "Predicting effectiveness of countermeasures during the COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa using agent-based simulation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:8:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-021-00830-w
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-021-00830-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-021-00830-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-021-00830-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John E. Ataguba, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic, a War to be Won: Understanding its Economic Implications for Africa," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 325-328, June.
    2. Flaminio Squazzoni & J. Gareth Polhill & Bruce Edmonds & Petra Ahrweiler & Patrycja Antosz & Geeske Scholz & Emile Chappin & Melania Borit & Harko Verhagen & Francesca Giardini & Nigel Gilbert, 2020. "Computational Models That Matter During a Global Pandemic Outbreak: A Call to Action," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 23(2), pages 1-10.
    3. Jun Wu & Boyun Liang & Cunrong Chen & Hua Wang & Yaohui Fang & Shu Shen & Xiaoli Yang & Baoju Wang & Liangkai Chen & Qi Chen & Yang Wu & Jia Liu & Xuecheng Yang & Wei Li & Bin Zhu & Wenqing Zhou & Hua, 2021. "SARS-CoV-2 infection induces sustained humoral immune responses in convalescent patients following symptomatic COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Michael te Vrugt & Jens Bickmann & Raphael Wittkowski, 2020. "Effects of social distancing and isolation on epidemic spreading modeled via dynamical density functional theory," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Silva, Petrônio C.L. & Batista, Paulo V.C. & Lima, Hélder S. & Alves, Marcos A. & Guimarães, Frederico G. & Silva, Rodrigo C.P., 2020. "COVID-ABS: An agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemic to simulate health and economic effects of social distancing interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Yoshiyuki Sugishita & Junko Kurita & Tamie Sugawara & Yasushi Ohkusa, 2020. "Effects of voluntary event cancellation and school closure as countermeasures against COVID-19 outbreak in Japan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Michael Greenstone & Vishan Nigam, 2020. "Does Social Distancing Matter?," Working Papers 2020-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    8. Grimm, Volker & Berger, Uta & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Polhill, J. Gary & Giske, Jarl & Railsback, Steven F., 2010. "The ODD protocol: A review and first update," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(23), pages 2760-2768.
    9. Jürgen Hackl & Thibaut Dubernet, 2019. "Epidemic Spreading in Urban Areas Using Agent-Based Transportation Models," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    10. Ian Bannon & Paul Collier, 2003. "Natural Resources and Violent Conflict : Options and Actions," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15047, December.
    11. Xingjie Hao & Shanshan Cheng & Degang Wu & Tangchun Wu & Xihong Lin & Chaolong Wang, 2020. "Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7821), pages 420-424, August.
    12. Carol Y. Lin, 2008. "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 993-993, September.
    13. Davide Scarselli & Nazmi Burak Budanur & Marc Timme & Björn Hof, 2021. "Discontinuous epidemic transition due to limited testing," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-6, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick Urrutia & David Wren & Chrysafis Vogiatzis & Ruriko Yoshida, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 Dissemination Using a Network of the US Counties," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-23, June.
    2. Zengqing Wu & Run Peng & Xu Han & Shuyuan Zheng & Yixin Zhang & Chuan Xiao, 2023. "Smart Agent-Based Modeling: On the Use of Large Language Models in Computer Simulations," Papers 2311.06330, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    3. Elizabeth Hunter & Brian Mac Namee & John Kelleher, 2018. "An open-data-driven agent-based model to simulate infectious disease outbreaks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-35, December.
    4. Lambert, Sébastien & Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle & Toïgo, Carole & Marchand, Pascal & Petit, Elodie & Garin-Bastuji, Bruno & Gauthier, Dominique & Gaillard, Jean-Michel & Rossi, Sophie & Thébault, Anne, 2020. "An individual-based model to assess the spatial and individual heterogeneity of Brucella melitensis transmission in Alpine ibex," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 425(C).
    5. Shuangjin Li & Shuang Ma & Junyi Zhang, 2023. "Building a system dynamics model to analyze scenarios of COVID-19 policymaking in tourism-dependent developing countries: A case study of Cambodia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(2), pages 488-512, March.
    6. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Tardy, Olivia & Lenglos, Christophe & Lai, Sandra & Berteaux, Dominique & Leighton, Patrick A., 2023. "Rabies transmission in the Arctic: An agent-based model reveals the effects of broad-scale movement strategies on contact risk between Arctic foxes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    8. Atukwatse Judith & Dr. Ogbona Chidiebere, 2022. "Land Allocation and Conflicts among Refugees and Host Communities, A case of Nakivale and Oruchinga Refugee Settlements in Western Uganda," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(12), pages 132-138, December.
    9. Vimercati, Giovanni & Hui, Cang & Davies, Sarah J. & Measey, G. John, 2017. "Integrating age structured and landscape resistance models to disentangle invasion dynamics of a pond-breeding anuran," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 356(C), pages 104-116.
    10. Lou, Jiehong & Shen, Xingchi & Niemeier, Deb, 2020. "Are stay-at-home orders more difficult to follow for low-income groups?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    11. Wei Zhong, 2017. "Simulating influenza pandemic dynamics with public risk communication and individual responsive behavior," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 475-495, December.
    12. De Martino, Giuseppe & Spina, Serena, 2015. "Exploiting the time-dynamics of news diffusion on the Internet through a generalized Susceptible–Infected model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 634-644.
    13. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    14. World Bank, 2005. "Conflict in Somalia : Drivers and Dynamics," World Bank Publications - Reports 8476, The World Bank Group.
    15. Hinker, Jonas & Hemkendreis, Christian & Drewing, Emily & März, Steven & Hidalgo Rodríguez, Diego I. & Myrzik, Johanna M.A., 2017. "A novel conceptual model facilitating the derivation of agent-based models for analyzing socio-technical optimality gaps in the energy domain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1219-1230.
    16. Anindya Ghose & Beibei Li & Meghanath Macha & Chenshuo Sun & Natasha Ying Zhang Foutz, 2020. "Trading Privacy for the Greater Social Good: How Did America React During COVID-19?," Papers 2006.05859, arXiv.org.
    17. Ngoasong, Michael Zisuh, 2014. "How international oil and gas companies respond to local content policies in petroleum-producing developing countries: A narrative enquiry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 471-479.
    18. Tianran Ding & Wouter Achten, 2023. "Coupling agent-based modeling with territorial LCA to support agricultural land-use planning," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/359527, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    19. Guido M. Kuersteiner & Ingmar R. Prucha, 2020. "Dynamic Spatial Panel Models: Networks, Common Shocks, and Sequential Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(5), pages 2109-2146, September.
    20. Becchetti, Leonardo & Conzo, Gianluigi & Conzo, Pierluigi & Salustri, Francesco, 2022. "Excess mortality and protected areas during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Italian municipalities," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(12), pages 1269-1276.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:8:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-021-00830-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.