IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0162140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble

Author

Listed:
  • James Tan
  • Siew Ann Cheong

Abstract

The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • James Tan & Siew Ann Cheong, 2016. "The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-8, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0162140
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0162140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0162140
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0162140&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0162140?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Over the Cliff: From the Subprime to the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 49-70, Winter.
    2. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    3. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    4. Xu, Yilan, 2014. "Does mortgage deregulation increase foreclosures? Evidence from Cleveland," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 126-139.
    5. L. Wray, 2008. "Lessons from the Subprime Meltdown," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 40-68.
    6. Christian Meisel & Christian Kuehn, 2012. "Scaling Effects and Spatio-Temporal Multilevel Dynamics in Epileptic Seizures," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-11, February.
    7. Chris A. Boulton & Lesley C. Allison & Timothy M. Lenton, 2014. "Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. James Tan & Siew Cheong, 2014. "Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 87(2), pages 1-10, February.
    9. Raphael W. Bostic & Kwan Ok Lee, 2008. "Mortgages, Risk, and Homeownership among Low- and Moderate-Income Families," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 310-314, May.
    10. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    11. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 297-308.
    12. Annelies J. Veraart & Elisabeth J. Faassen & Vasilis Dakos & Egbert H. van Nes & Miquel Lürling & Marten Scheffer, 2012. "Correction: Corrigendum: Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system," Nature, Nature, vol. 484(7394), pages 404-404, April.
    13. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    14. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    15. Rong Wang & John A. Dearing & Peter G. Langdon & Enlou Zhang & Xiangdong Yang & Vasilis Dakos & Marten Scheffer, 2012. "Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state," Nature, Nature, vol. 492(7429), pages 419-422, December.
    16. Marten Scheffer & Jordi Bascompte & William A. Brock & Victor Brovkin & Stephen R. Carpenter & Vasilis Dakos & Hermann Held & Egbert H. van Nes & Max Rietkerk & George Sugihara, 2009. "Early-warning signals for critical transitions," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7260), pages 53-59, September.
    17. Annelies J. Veraart & Elisabeth J. Faassen & Vasilis Dakos & Egbert H. van Nes & Miquel Lürling & Marten Scheffer, 2012. "Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system," Nature, Nature, vol. 481(7381), pages 357-359, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. James PL Tan, 2016. "A Generalized Population Dynamics Model of a City and an Algorithm for Engineering Regime Shifts," Papers 1612.08338, arXiv.org.
    2. Ismail, Mohd Sabri & Noorani, Mohd Salmi Md & Ismail, Munira & Razak, Fatimah Abdul & Alias, Mohd Almie, 2022. "Early warning signals of financial crises using persistent homology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 586(C).
    3. Haoyu Wen & Massimo Pica Ciamarra & Siew Ann Cheong, 2018. "How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2023. "Sentiment-based indicators of real estate market stress and systemic risk: international evidence," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-382, September.
    5. Tan, James P.L., 2018. "An algorithm for engineering regime shifts in one-dimensional dynamical systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 721-731.
    6. Yiyi Chen & Colin A. Jones & Neil A. Dunse & Enquan Li & Ye Liu, 2023. "Housing Prices and the Characteristics of Nearby Green Space: Does Landscape Pattern Index Matter? Evidence from Metropolitan Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Meisel & Andreas Klaus & Christian Kuehn & Dietmar Plenz, 2015. "Critical Slowing Down Governs the Transition to Neuron Spiking," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(2), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Ongena, Steven & Kara, Alper & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2011. "Securitization and lending standards: evidence from the wholesale loan market," Working Paper Series 1362, European Central Bank.
    3. Petro Lisowsky & Michael Minnis & Andrew Sutherland, 2017. "Economic Growth and Financial Statement Verification," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 745-794, September.
    4. Aller, Carlos & Grant, Charles, 2018. "The effect of the financial crisis on default by Spanish households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 39-52.
    5. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kudlyak, Marianna & Mondragon, John, 2014. "Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data," IZA Discussion Papers 7910, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Daniel García, 2020. "Employment in the Great Recession: How Important Were Household Credit Supply Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 165-203, February.
    7. Nadauld, Taylor D. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2012. "Did securitization affect the cost of corporate debt?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 332-352.
    8. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2010. "Securitization and distressed loan renegotiation: Evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 369-397, September.
    9. van der Plaat, Mark, 2020. "Loan sales and the tyranny of tistance in U.S. residential mortgage lending," MPRA Paper 107519, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Apr 2021.
    10. Kuncl, Martin, 2019. "Securitization under asymmetric information over the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 237-256.
    11. Godlewski, Christophe J., 2014. "Bank loans and borrower value during the global financial crisis: Empirical evidence from France," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 100-130.
    12. Charles Grant, 2021. "The Evolution of Arrears among US Households 1995–2013," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-40, January.
    13. Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Kyriaki Kosmidou & Dimitrios Kousenidis & Victoria Patsika, 2019. "The investigation of the dynamic linkages between real estate market and stock market in Greece," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 647-669, May.
    14. William Lang & Julapa Jagtiani, 2010. "The Mortgage and Financial Crises: The Role of Credit Risk Management and Corporate Governance," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(2), pages 123-144, June.
    15. Li, Chunshuo & Ongena, Steven, 2015. "Bank loan announcements and borrower stock returns before and during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 1-12.
    16. Seda Durguner, 2021. "Relaxed Credit Standards in the U.S. Housing Boom: Changes in Risk Characteristics of Mortgage Recipients," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 208-254, March.
    17. Agatha M. Poroshina, 2014. "Credit Risk Modeling Of Residential Mortgage Lending In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 30/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    18. Arthur Acolin & Xudong An & Susan M. Wachter, 2022. "Lending competition, regulation, and nontraditional mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 340-365, June.
    19. Christophe J. GODLEWSKI, 2012. "Are bank loans still “special” (especially during a crisis)? Empirical evidence from a European country," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2012-03, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    20. Shi, Lan & Zhang, Yan, 2018. "The effect of mortgage broker licensing under the originate-to-distribute model: Evidence from the U.S. mortgage market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 70-85.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0162140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.