Backtesting the efficiency of MNB’s Lending Survey
AbstractThis article briefly presents the general practice of lending surveys aimed at revealing loan supply behaviour, as well as the literature analysing their usability. The focus of our analysis is the so-called Lending Survey (SLO), conducted by the MNB since 2003. In the context of our backtesting based on data available up to December 2008, we examined whether there were any contradictions in banks’ responses and how usable the results were from the perspective of lending and growth forecasts. Based on the results, it can be established that banks are consistent in their answers, so there is a strong relationship between their forward-looking and subsequent, retrospective answers. The correlation between the changes in lending standards and the volume of loan portfolios is weak. This is due to the fact that in the Hungarian banking sector the increase in loan portfolios over the past five years may have been influenced not only by supply-side behaviour, but also by demand for loans and economic growth to a great extent. We also examined the correlation between changes in corporate lending standards and GDP growth, which proved to be significant. Nevertheless, we cannot draw conclusions about the direction of the cause and effect relationship based solely on the establishment of correlation, in other words about whether banks act procyclically or whether corporate lending behaviour plays a decisive role in economic growth. The strength of our analysis is limited by the brevity of the available time series and by the fact that we were unable to observe the entire loan cycle during the period under review. Later, with the expansion of the Lending Survey’s data series, it will be worthwhile to pursue our examination.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its journal MNB Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 4 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
lending survey; Hungary; loan supply behaviour; lending standards.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jesper Berg & Annalisa Ferrando & Gabe de Bondt & Silvia Scopel, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988.
"Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-39, May.
- Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012.
"Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, 03.
- Dell''Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence From The Subprime Mortgage Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dell’Ariccia, G. & Igan, D. & Laeven, L., 2009. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Discussion Paper 2009-46 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Deniz Igan, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," IMF Working Papers 08/106, International Monetary Fund.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
- Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004.
"The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey,"
SIFR Research Report Series
27, Institute for Financial Research.
- Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
- Stacey L. Schreft & Raymond E. Owens, 1991.
"Survey evidence of tighter credit conditions: what does it mean?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Mar, pages 29-34.
- Stacey L. Schreft & Raymond E. Owens, 1991. "Survey evidence of tighter credit conditions: what does it mean?," Working Paper 91-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Johanna Jeney).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.