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The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan

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Author Info
LUTZ KILIAN
SIMONE MANGANELLI

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Abstract

We derive a natural generalization of the Taylor rule that links changes in the interest rate to the balance of the risks implied by the dual objective of sustainable economic growth and price stability. This monetary policy rule reconciles economic models of expected utility maximization with the risk management approach to central banking. Within this framework, we formally test and reject the standard assumption of quadratic and symmetric preferences in inflation and output that underlies the derivation of the Taylor rule. Our results suggest that Fed policy decisions under Greenspan were better described in terms of the Fed weighing upside and downside risks to their objectives rather than simply responding to the conditional mean of inflation and of the output gap. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00150.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (09)
Pages: 1103-1129
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:6:p:1103-1129

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1981. "A Risk-Return Model with Risk and Return Measured as Deviations from a Target Return," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 182-88, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 2003. " Inflation Targeting under Asymmetric Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 763-85, October.
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  6. Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh & Taimur Baig & Jörg Decressin & Tarhan Feyzioglu & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2003. "Deflation: Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options," IMF Occasional Papers 221, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-26, March.
  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2007. "Quantifying the Risk of Deflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 561-590, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi & Jana, Kalidas & Shin, Changmock, 2007. "Information in generalized method of moments estimation and entropy-based moment selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 488-512, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: Should It Be Modeled as an Instrument Rule or a Targeting Rule?," NBER Working Papers 8925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Multivariate Perspective for Modeling and Forecasting Inflation's Conditional Mean and Variance," LEM Papers Series 2007/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2009. "Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?," MPRA Paper 14387, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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