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Uncertain discount and hyperbolic preferences

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  • Daniele Pennesi

    (University of Bologna)

Abstract

This paper studies the interaction between savagean uncertainty and time preferences. We introduce a variation of the discounted subjective expected utility model, where time preferences are state dependent. Before uncertainty is resolved, the individual is unsure about the discount factor that will be used, even when evaluating certain payoffs. The model can account for the present bias and diminishing impatience, even if the future is discounted geometrically. The present bias disappears when the immediate payoff becomes uncertain. Although preferences are not stationary, choices may be time consistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele Pennesi, 2017. "Uncertain discount and hyperbolic preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 315-336, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:83:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11238-017-9603-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-017-9603-2
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    Cited by:

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    3. Anchugina, Nina & Ryan, Matthew & Slinko, Arkadii, 2019. "Mixing discount functions: Implications for collective time preferences," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Epper, Thomas & Fehr-Duda, Helga, 2017. "A Tale of Two Tails: On the Coexistence of Overweighting and Underweighting of Rare Extreme Events," Economics Working Paper Series 1705, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    5. Shotaro Shiba & Kazumi Shimizu, 2020. "Does time inconsistency differ between gain and loss? An intra-personal comparison using a non-parametric elicitation method," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 431-452, April.
    6. Shou Chen & Richard Fu & Lei Wedge & Ziran Zou, 2019. "Non-hyperbolic discounting and dynamic preference reversal," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 86(2), pages 283-302, March.
    7. Shotaro Shiba & Kazumi Shimizu, 2018. "Does time inconsistency differ between gain and loss? An intra-personal comparison using a non-parametric elicitation method (A revised version)," Working Papers 1807, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diminishing impatience; Savagean uncertainty; Hyperbolic discounting; Time consistency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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