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Foundations of Bayesian theory

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  • Karni, Edi

Abstract

This paper states necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness, and updating according to Bayes?rule, of subjective probabilities representing individuals?beliefs. The approach is preference based, and the result is an axiomatic subjective expected utility model of Bayesian decision making under uncertainty with statedependent preferences. The theory provides foundations for the existence of prior probabilities representing decision makers?beliefs about the likely realization of events and for the updating of these probabilities according to Bayes?rule.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 132 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 167-188

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:132:y:2007:i:1:p:167-188

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869

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References

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  1. John C. Harsanyi, 1955. "Cardinal Welfare, Individualistic Ethics, and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63, pages 309.
  2. MONGIN, Philippe, 1993. "Consistent Bayesian Aggregation," CORE Discussion Papers 1993019, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Wakker, Peter, 1987. "Subjective probabilities for state dependent continuous utility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 289-298, December.
  4. Karni, Edi, 1996. "Probabilities and Beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 249-62, November.
  5. Hylland, Aanund & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1979. "The Impossibility of Bayesian Group Decision Making with Separate Aggregation of Beliefs and Values," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1321-36, November.
  6. F J Anscombe & R J Aumann, 2000. "A Definition of Subjective Probability," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7591, David K. Levine.
  7. DREZE, Jacques H. & RUSTICHINI, Aldo, 1995. "Moral Hazard and Conditional Preferences," CORE Discussion Papers 1995010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Fishburn, Peter C, 1973. "A Mixture-Set Axiomatization of Conditional Subjective Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-25, January.
  9. E. Karni & Ph. Mongin, 1997. "On the determination of subjective probability by choices," THEMA Working Papers 97-37, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  10. Luce, R Duncan & Krantz, David H, 1971. "Conditional Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(2), pages 253-71, March.
  11. Karni, Edi, 2003. " On the Representation of Beliefs by Probabilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 17-38, January.
  12. Costis Skiadas, 1997. "Conditioning and Aggregation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(2), pages 347-368, March.
  13. Itzhak Gilboa & Dov Samet & David Schmeidler, 2001. "Utilitarian Aggregation of Beliefs and Tastes," Game Theory and Information 0105001, EconWPA.
  14. Karni, Edi & Schmeidler, David & Vind, Karl, 1983. "On State Dependent Preferences and Subjective Probabilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1021-31, July.
  15. Skiadas, Costis, 1997. "Subjective Probability under Additive Aggregation of Conditional Preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 242-271, October.
  16. Grant, Simon & Karni, Edi, 2004. "A theory of quantifiable beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 515-546, August.
  17. Karni, Edi & Schmeidler, David, 1993. "On the Uniqueness of Subjective Probabilities," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 267-77, April.
  18. Karni, Edi, 1993. "A Definition of Subjective Probabilities with State-Dependent Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 187-98, January.
  19. Karni Edi, 1993. "Subjective Expected Utility Theory with State-Dependent Preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 428-438, August.
  20. Paolo Ghirardato, 2002. "Revisiting Savage in a conditional world," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 83-92.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thibault Gajdos & Feriel Kandil, 2006. "The Ignorant Observer," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00115722, HAL.
  2. Grant, Simon & Karni, Edi, 2003. "Why Does It Matter That Beliefs and Valuations Be Correctly Represented?," Working Papers 2003-02, Rice University, Department of Economics.
  3. Edi Karni, 2007. "Bayesian Decision Theory and the Representation of Beliefs," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000776, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Eddie Dekel & Barton L. Lipman, 2010. "How (Not) to Do Decision Theory," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 257-282, 09.
  5. Hill, Brian, 2007. "Living without state-independence of utilities," Les Cahiers de Recherche 874, HEC Paris.
  6. Karni, Edi, 2006. "Subjective expected utility theory without states of the world," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 325-342, June.
  7. Ralph Keeney & Robert Nau, 2011. "A theorem for Bayesian group decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 1-17, August.
  8. Luo, Xiao & Yang, Chih-Chun, 2009. "Bayesian coalitional rationalizability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 248-263, January.

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