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Probabilities and Beliefs

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Author Info
Karni, Edi

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Abstract

Choice-theoretic definitions of subjective probabilities originated with the work of Ramsey and de Finetti and attained their definitive form in the work of Savage. These probabilities are intended to provide a numerical representation of a decision maker's beliefs regarding the likely realization of alternative events. In this article, I argue that the choice-theoretic definitions of subjective probabilities involve a tacit convention--namely, state-independent utility functions--that is not implied by the axioms, and, as a consequence, choice-theoretic subjective probabilities, even when they exist, do not necessarily represent the decision makers' beliefs. Copyright 1996 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Volume (Year): 13 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 249-62
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:13:y:1996:i:3:p:249-62

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  1. Edi Karni, 2007. "Bayesian Decision Theory and the Representation of Beliefs," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000776, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Edi Karni, 2009. "A Theory of Bayesian Decision Making," Economics Working Paper Archive 550, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Decision-Making in the Context of Imprecise Probabilistic Beliefs," Economics Working Papers 0034, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science. [Downloadable!]
  4. Enrico Diecidue & Peter Wakker & Marcel Zeelenberg, 2007. "Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti’s betting-odds method to prospect theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 179-199, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Grant, S. & Karni, E., 2002. "Why does it matter that beliefs and valuations be correctly represented?," Discussion Paper 12, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Bernoulli Without Bayes: A Theory of Utility-Sophisticated Preferences under Ambiguity," Economics Working Papers 0072, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science. [Downloadable!]
  7. Edi Karni, 2005. "Subjective Expected Utility Theory without States of the World," Economics Working Paper Archive 523, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Edi Karni, 2008. "Agency theory: choice-based foundations of the parametrized distribution formulation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 337-351, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Edi Karni, 2005. "Foundations of Bayesian Theory," Economics Working Paper Archive 524, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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