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Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament

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  • Antoine Auberger

Abstract

This article builds and estimates several econometric models that explain and forecast the outcomes of the French elections for the European Parliament. These models show the influence of the change in the local unemployment rate to explain the vote for the moderate Left and the moderate Right in the French elections for the European Parliament. These models appear to be accurate in forecasting the elections of the past, and their behavior for the 2009 French election for the European Parliament is satisfactory. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Auberger, 2012. "Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 329-340, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:153:y:2012:i:3:p:329-340
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-011-9796-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    2. Antoine Auberger & Eric Dubois, 2005. "The influence of local and national economic conditions on French legislative elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 363-383, December.
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    4. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer.
    5. Mueller,Dennis C., 2003. "Public Choice III," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521894753.
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    7. Marsh, Michael, 1998. "Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 591-607, October.
    8. Abramowitz, Alan I., 2008. "It's about time: Forecasting the 2008 presidential election with the time-for-change model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 209-217.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vote functions; French elections; European Parliament; Election forecasting; Local unemployment; C23; C33; C53; D72;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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