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The influence of local and national economic conditions on French legislative elections

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  • Antoine Auberger
  • Eric Dubois

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Abstract

This article's aim consists in building and estimating a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French legislative elections by department. This model, which constitutes the first attempt for such a geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past at the local and national level. Furthermore, its behaviour for the 2002 election was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intention polls as an electoral forecasting instrument. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-005-3056-9
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 125 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 363-383

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:125:y:2005:i:3:p:363-383

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

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  1. Abrams, Burton A & Butkiewicz, James L, 1995. " The Influence of State-Level Economic Conditions on the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 85(1-2), pages 1-10, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Arzheimer, Kai & Evans, Jocelyn, 2010. "Bread and butter à la française: Multiparty forecasts of the French legislative vote (1981-2007)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 19-31, January.
  2. Éric Dubois, 2007. "Les déterminants économiques du vote 1976-2006 : trente ans de fonctions de vote en France," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 0(2), pages 243-270.
  3. Antoine Auberger, 2011. "Popularity Functions for the French President and Prime Minister (1995-2007)," Working Papers halshs-00872313, HAL.
  4. Rodrigo Martins & Francisco Veiga, 2013. "Economic voting in Portuguese municipal elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 317-334, June.
  5. Francisco Jose Veiga & Linda Goncalves Veiga, 2010. "The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(13), pages 1727-1734.
  6. Eric Dubois & Matthieu Leprince & Sonia Paty, 2007. "The Effects of Politics on Local Tax Setting: Evidence from France," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00800688, HAL.
  7. Elinder, Mikael, 2006. "Local Economies and General Elections," Working Paper Series 2007:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  8. Elinder, Mikael, 2010. "Local economies and general elections: The influence of municipal and regional economic conditions on voting in Sweden 1985-2002," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 279-292, June.
  9. Aurélie Cassette & Etienne Farvaque & Jérôme Héricourt, 2013. "Two-round elections, one-round determinants? Evidence from the French municipal elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 563-591, September.
  10. Antoine Auberger, 2012. "Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 329-340, December.
  11. Economou, Athina & Gavroglou, Stavros & Kollias, Christos, 2013. "Economic fluctuations and political self-placement," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 57-65.
  12. Martial Foucault & Thierry Madies & Sonia Paty, 2008. "Public spending interactions and local politics. Empirical evidence from French municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 57-80, October.
  13. Eric Dubois & François Facchini & Martial Foucault & Abel François, 2009. "Un modèle explicatif du vote FNSEA aux élections des représentants des chefs d'exploitation aux Chambres d'Agriculture départementales (1995-2001)," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00800701, HAL.
  14. Eric Dubois & Sonia Paty, 2010. "Yardstick competition: which neighbours matter?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 433-452, June.

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