The influence of local and national economic conditions on French legislative elections
AbstractThis article's aim consists in building and estimating a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French legislative elections by department. This model, which constitutes the first attempt for such a geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past at the local and national level. Furthermore, its behaviour for the 2002 election was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intention polls as an electoral forecasting instrument. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.
Volume (Year): 125 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332
Other versions of this item:
- Antoine Auberger & Eric Dubois, 2005. "The Influence of Local and National Economic Conditions on French Legislative Elections," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00800638, HAL.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Abrams, Burton A & Butkiewicz, James L, 1995. " The Influence of State-Level Economic Conditions on the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 85(1-2), pages 1-10, October.
- Elinder, Mikael, 2010.
"Local economies and general elections: The influence of municipal and regional economic conditions on voting in Sweden 1985-2002,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 279-292, June.
- Elinder, Mikael, 2010. "Local Economies and General Elections: The Influence of Municipal and Regional Economic Conditions on Voting in Sweden 1985–2002," Working Paper Series 821, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Arzheimer, Kai & Evans, Jocelyn, 2010. "Bread and butter à la française: Multiparty forecasts of the French legislative vote (1981-2007)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 19-31, January.
- Francisco Jose Veiga & Linda Goncalves Veiga, 2010.
"The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(13), pages 1727-1734.
- Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results," NIPE Working Papers 6/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Éric Dubois, 2007. "Les déterminants économiques du vote 1976-2006 : trente ans de fonctions de vote en France," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 0(2), pages 243-270.
- Elinder, Mikael, 2006. "Local Economies and General Elections," Working Paper Series 2007:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Antoine Auberger, 2011. "Popularity Functions for the French President and Prime Minister (1995-2007)," Working Papers halshs-00872313, HAL.
- Eric Dubois & Sonia Paty, 2010.
"Yardstick competition: which neighbours matter?,"
The Annals of Regional Science,
Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 433-452, June.
- Rodrigo Martins & Francisco José Veiga, 2010.
"Economic Voting in Portuguese Municipal Elections,"
NIPE Working Papers
33/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Economou, Athina & Gavroglou, Stavros & Kollias, Christos, 2013. "Economic fluctuations and political self-placement," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 57-65.
- Aurélie Cassette & Etienne Farvaque & Jérôme Héricourt, 2013.
"Two-round elections, one-round determinants? Evidence from the French municipal elections,"
Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 563-591, September.
- Cassette, Aurélie & Farvaque, Etienne & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2011. "Two-round elections, one-round determinants? Evidence from the French municipal elections," MPRA Paper 34675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Eric Dubois & François Facchini & Martial Foucault & Abel François, 2009. "Un modèle explicatif du vote FNSEA aux élections des représentants des chefs d'exploitation aux Chambres d'Agriculture départementales (1995-2001)," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00800701, HAL.
- Martial Foucault & Thierry Madies & Sonia Paty, 2008. "Public spending interactions and local politics. Empirical evidence from French municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 57-80, October.
- Eric Dubois & Matthieu Leprince & Sonia Paty, 2007. "The Effects of Politics on Local Tax Setting: Evidence from France," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00800688, HAL.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.