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Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation in the 2004 Presidential Popular Vote: A Reassessment of the Evidence

Author

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  • Burnett, Wesley

    (West Virginia University)

  • Lacombe, Donald J.

    (West Virginia University)

Abstract

Ordinary least squares econometric approaches to estimating election vote outcomes potentially ignore spatial dependence (or autocorrelation) in the data that may affect estimates of voting behavior. The presence of spatial autocorrelation in the data can yield biased or inconsistent point estimates when ordinary least squares is used inappropriately. Therefore, this paper puts forward a spatial econometric model to estimate the vote outcomes in the 2004 presidential election. We contribute to the literature in two ways. One, we extend the voting behavior literature by considering newly developed spatial specification tests to determine the proper econometric model. The results of two different spatial specification tests suggest that a spatial Durbin model provides a better fit to the data. Two, we offer a richer interpretation of the spatial effects, which differ from standard ordinary least squares estimates, of the county-level vote outcome for the 2004 presidential election.

Suggested Citation

  • Burnett, Wesley & Lacombe, Donald J., 2012. "Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation in the 2004 Presidential Popular Vote: A Reassessment of the Evidence," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 75-89, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v:42:y:2012:i:1:p:75-89
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Eisenberg Daniel & Ketcham Jonathan, 2004. "Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections: Who Blames Whom for What," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, August.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sebastien Bourdin & André Torre, 2023. "Geography of contestation: A study on the Yellow Vest movement and the rise of populism in France," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 214-235, January.
    3. Panagiotis Artelaris & Yannis Tsirbas, 2018. "Anti-austerity voting in an era of economic crisis: Regional evidence from the 2015 referendum in Greece," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 36(4), pages 589-608, June.
    4. Elena Anatolyevna Podkolzina & Olga Anatolyevna Demidova & Lada Evgenyevna Kuletskaya, 2020. "Spatial Modeling of Voting Preferences in Russian Federation," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 70-100.
    5. Panagiotis Artelaris & George Mavrommatis, 2021. "The role of economic and cultural changes in the rise of far‐right in Greece: A regional analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 353-369, April.
    6. Fırat Gündem, 2023. "Beliefs, economics, and spatial regimes in voting behavior: the Turkish case, 2007–2018," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    spatial econometrics; spatial Hausman test; 2004 presidential election;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General

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