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International Financial Relations Under the Current Float: Evidence from Panel Data

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  • James Lothian
  • Yusif Simaan

Abstract

This paper uses multi-country data for the period 1973–1994 to investigate five key equilibrium conditions in international finance—purchasing power parity, the Fisher equation, uncovered interest parity, and the equity-return analogues of the latter two. The results are largely consistent with theoretical expectations. Over the long run, purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity and the Fisher effect prove to be rather good first approximations. The equity-return relations, though somewhat less so are nevertheless much better behaved than past studies would lead one to expect. Average rates of equity returns keep pace with inflation within countries in almost all instances; across countries, they are positively correlated with average rates of inflation. This is particularly the case when the data period is extended to include earlier decades. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 9 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 293-313

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:9:y:1998:i:4:p:293-313

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: Fisher equation; purchasing power parity; uncovered interest parity; real stock returns;

References

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  1. Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(2), pages 266-76, June.
  2. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
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  8. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
  9. Oh, Keun-Yeob, 1996. "Purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 405-418, June.
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  12. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lothian, James R., 1993. "The response of exchange rates to permanent and transitory shocks under floating exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 563-586, December.
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  16. Takatoshi Ito, 1997. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_97-2, July.
  17. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  18. Lothian, James R., 1997. "Multi-country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, February.
  19. Lothian, James R, 1985. "Equilibrium Relationships between Money and Other Economic Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 828-35, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lawrence G. Goldberg & James R. Lothian & John Okunev, 2003. "Has International Financial Integration Increased?," International Finance 0311004, EconWPA.
  2. Lothian, James R. & Pownall, Rachel A.J. & Koedijk, Kees G., 2013. "I discovered the peso problem: Irving Fisher and the UIP puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 5-17.
  3. James R. Lothian & Cornelia H.. McCarthy, 2001. "Equity Returns and Inflation: The Puzzlingly Long Lags," International Finance 0107003, EconWPA.
  4. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
  5. Lothian, James R., 2002. "The internationalization of money and finance and the globalization of financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 699-724, November.
  6. James R. Lothian & Liuren Wu, 2003. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Over the Past Two Centuries," International Finance 0311009, EconWPA.
  7. Eichler, Stefan, 2011. "Exchange rate expectations and the pricing of Chinese cross-listed stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 443-455, February.
  8. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Campbell, Rachel & Koedijk, Kees & Lothian, James R & Mahieu, Ronald J, 2007. "Irving Fisher, Expectational Errors, and the UIP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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