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I discovered the peso problem: Irving Fisher and the UIP puzzle

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  • Lothian, James R.
  • Pownall, Rachel A.J.
  • Koedijk, Kees G.

Abstract

Irving Fisher was the first economist to posit what has come to be known as uncovered interest parity relation. He was also the first to offer a peso-problem type explanation for important episodes in which it was violated. After reviewing his theoretical and empirical work on this subject, we go on to reexamine both his data and several other bodies – two consisting of multi-country panel data and a third consisting of a two-century long time series for the United States and the United Kingdom. We find evidence in these data of the important role played by episodic phenomena in disturbing the UIP relation. Like Fisher, we find that the influence of such phenomena dissipates over time. Over the long term these errors prove to be less important and UIP receives empirical support.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 38 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 5-17

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:38:y:2013:i:c:p:5-17

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Exchange rates; Peso problems forward discount bias; International parities; Expectational errors; Irving Fisher;

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References

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  1. James Lothian & Yusif Simaan, 1998. "International Financial Relations Under the Current Float: Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 293-313, October.
  2. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  3. Friedman, Milton & Schwartz, Anna J, 1991. "Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Economic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 39-49, March.
  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December.
  5. Robert W. Dimand, 1999. "Irving Fisher and the Fisher Relation: Setting the Record Straight," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 744-750, May.
  6. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
  7. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867-1975," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie82-2, May.
  8. Lothian, James R, 1985. "Equilibrium Relationships between Money and Other Economic Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 828-35, September.
  9. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1983. "The early history of the real/nominal interest rate relationship," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue May, pages 2-10.
  10. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, May.
  11. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
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