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Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Jesper Akesson

    (The Behaviouralist)

  • Sam Ashworth-Hayes

    (The Behaviouralist)

  • Robert Hahn

    (University of Oxford and Technology Policy Institute)

  • Robert Metcalfe

    (University of Southern California and NBER)

  • Itzhak Rasooly

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Little is known about how people’s beliefs concerning the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) influence their behavior. To shed light on this, we conduct an online experiment ( $$n = 3,610$$ n = 3 , 610 ) with US and UK residents. Participants are randomly allocated to a control group or to one of two treatment groups. The treatment groups are shown upper- or lower-bound expert estimates of the infectiousness of the virus. We present three main empirical findings. First, individuals dramatically overestimate the dangerousness and infectiousness of COVID-19 relative to expert opinion. Second, providing people with expert information partially corrects their beliefs about the virus. Third, the more infectious people believe that COVID-19 is, the less willing they are to take protective measures, a finding we dub the “fatalism effect”. We develop a formal model that can explain the fatalism effect and discuss its implications for optimal policy during the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2022. "Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 147-190, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:64:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11166-022-09375-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09375-y
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    Keywords

    COVID-19; Beliefs; Online experiment; Fatalism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General

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