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Compliance with Covid-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Briscese
  • Nicola Lacetera
  • Mario Macis
  • Mirco Tonin

Abstract

We study how intentions to comply with the self-isolation restrictions introduced in Italy to mitigate the Covid-19 epidemic respond to the length of their possible extension. Based on a survey of a representative sample of Italian residents (N=894), we find that respondents who are positively surprised by a given hypothetical extension (i.e. the extension is shorter than what they expected) are more willing to increase their self-isolation. In contrast, negative surprises (extensions longer than expected) are associated with a lower willingness to comply. In a context where individual compliance has collective benefits, but full enforcement is costly and controversial, communication and persuasion have a fundamental role. Our findings provide insights to public authorities on how to announce lockdown measures and manage people’s expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Briscese & Nicola Lacetera & Mario Macis & Mirco Tonin, 2020. "Compliance with Covid-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration," CESifo Working Paper Series 8182, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8182
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Louro, M.J.S. & Pieters, R. & Zeelenberg, M., 2007. "Dynamics of multiple goal pursuit," Other publications TiSEM fcfc1f8f-6eae-41bb-af23-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; social distancing; expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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