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Compliance with COVID-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration

Author

Listed:
  • Briscese, Guglielmo

    (University of Chicago)

  • Lacetera, Nicola

    (University of Toronto)

  • Macis, Mario

    (The Johns Hopkins Carey Business School)

  • Tonin, Mirco

    (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano)

Abstract

We study how intentions to comply with the self-isolation restrictions enacted in Italy in response to the COVID-19 crisis respond to the length of their possible extension. Based on a survey of a representative sample of Italian residents (N=894), we find that respondents who are positively surprised by a given hypothetical extension (i.e. the extension is shorter than what they expected) are more willing to increase their self-isolation. In contrast, negative surprises (extensions longer than expected) relate with a lower willingness to comply. In a context where individual compliance has collective benefits, but full enforcement is costly and controversial, communication and persuasion have a fundamental role. Our findings provide insights to public authorities on how to announce lockdown measures and manage people's expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Briscese, Guglielmo & Lacetera, Nicola & Macis, Mario & Tonin, Mirco, 2020. "Compliance with COVID-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 13092, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13092
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Louro, M.J.S. & Pieters, R. & Zeelenberg, M., 2007. "Dynamics of multiple goal pursuit," Other publications TiSEM fcfc1f8f-6eae-41bb-af23-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    social distancing; compliance; expectations; COVID-19; behavioural change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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