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Pricing the global health risks of the COVID-19 pandemic

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  • W. Kip Viscusi

    (Vanderbilt Law School)

Abstract

Policies to address the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) require a balancing of the health risk reductions and the costs of economic dislocations. Application of the value of a statistical life (VSL) to monetize COVID-19 deaths produces a U.S. mortality cost estimate of $1.4 trillion for deaths in the first half of 2020. This article presents worldwide COVID-19 costs for over 100 countries. The total global mortality cost through July 2, 2020 is $3.5 trillion. The United States accounts for 25% of the deaths, but 41% of the mortality cost. Adjustments for the shorter life expectancy and lower income of the victims substantially reduces the estimated monetized losses, but may raise fundamental equity concerns. Morbidity effects of COVID-19 affect many more patients than do the disease’s mortality risks. Consideration of the morbidity effects increase the expected health losses associated with COVID-19 illnesses by 10% to 40%.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Kip Viscusi, 2020. "Pricing the global health risks of the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 101-128, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:61:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11166-020-09337-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09337-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moore, Michael J & Viscusi, W Kip, 1988. "The Quantity-Adjusted Value of Life," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(3), pages 369-388, July.
    2. Joseph E. Aldy & W. Kip Viscusi, 2008. "Adjusting the Value of a Statistical Life for Age and Cohort Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 573-581, August.
    3. Thomas J. Kniesner & Ryan Sullivan, 2020. "The forgotten numbers: A closer look at COVID-19 non-fatal valuations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 155-176, October.
    4. James K. Hammitt, 2020. "Valuing mortality risk in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 129-154, October.
    5. W. Kip Viscusi & Joel Huber & Jason Bell, 2014. "Assessing Whether There Is A Cancer Premium For The Value Of A Statistical Life," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 384-396, April.
    6. Hammitt James K. & Robinson Lisa A, 2011. "The Income Elasticity of the Value per Statistical Life: Transferring Estimates between High and Low Income Populations," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, January.
    7. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
    8. W. Kip Viscusi, 2019. "Risk guideposts for a safer society: Introduction and overview," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 101-119, June.
    9. Viscusi, W. Kip & Hersch, Joni, 2008. "The mortality cost to smokers," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 943-958, July.
    10. Viscusi, W. Kip & Masterman, Clayton J., 2017. "Income Elasticities and Global Values of a Statistical Life," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 226-250, July.
    11. W. Kip Viscusi, 2004. "The Value of Life: Estimates with Risks by Occupation and Industry," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 29-48, January.
    12. Viscusi, W. Kip, 2018. "Best Estimate Selection Bias in the Value of a Statistical Life," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 205-246, July.
    13. Michael Greenstone & Vishan Nigam, 2020. "Does Social Distancing Matter?," Working Papers 2020-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    14. George Houtven & Melonie Sullivan & Chris Dockins, 2008. "Cancer premiums and latency effects: A risk tradeoff approach for valuing reductions in fatal cancer risks," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 179-199, April.
    15. Kip Viscusi, W. & Magat, Wesley A. & Huber, Joel, 1991. "Pricing environmental health risks: survey assessments of risk-risk and risk-dollar trade-offs for chronic bronchitis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 32-51, July.
    16. Thunström, Linda & Newbold, Stephen C. & Finnoff, David & Ashworth, Madison & Shogren, Jason F., 2020. "The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 179-195, July.
    17. Thomas J. Kniesner & W. Kip Viscusi & Christopher Woock & James P. Ziliak, 2012. "The Value of a Statistical Life: Evidence from Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 74-87, February.
    18. W. Kip Viscusi, 2015. "The Role of Publication Selection Bias in Estimates of the Value of a Statistical Life," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 27-52, Winter.
    19. Hammitt James K. & Robinson Lisa A, 2011. "The Income Elasticity of the Value per Statistical Life: Transferring Estimates between High and Low Income Populations," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, January.
    20. W. Kip Viscusi & Clayton Masterman, 2017. "Anchoring biases in international estimates of the value of a statistical life," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 103-128, April.
    21. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Htay-Wah Saw & Dana P. Goldman, 2020. "Political polarization in US residents’ COVID-19 risk perceptions, policy preferences, and protective behaviors," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 177-194, October.
    22. Masterman, Clayton J. & Viscusi, W. Kip, 2018. "The Income Elasticity of Global Values of a Statistical Life: Stated Preference Evidence," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 407-434, October.
    23. O'Conor, Richard M. & Blomquist, Glenn C., 1997. "Measurement of consumer-patient preferences using a hybrid contingent valuation method," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 667-683, December.
    24. Doucouliagos, Hristos & Stanley, T.D. & Viscusi, W. Kip, 2014. "Publication selection and the income elasticity of the value of a statistical life," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 67-75.
    25. repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Blomquist, Glenn C. & Dickie, Mark & O'Conor, Richard M., 2011. "Willingness to pay for improving fatality risks and asthma symptoms: Values for children and adults of all ages," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 410-425, May.
    27. Gentry, Elissa Philip & Viscusi, W. Kip, 2016. "The fatality and morbidity components of the value of statistical life," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 90-99.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus; COVID-19; Value of statistical life; VSL; Mortality; Morbidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • K32 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Energy, Environmental, Health, and Safety Law

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