IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/14757.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the costs and benefits of mandated business closures in a pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Sauvagnat, Julien
  • Barrot, Jean-Noël
  • Grassi, Basile

Abstract

Typical government responses to pandemics involve social distancing measures implemented to curb disease propagation. We evaluate the impact of state-mandated business closures in the context of the Covid-19 crisis in the US. Using state-level variations in the set of sectors defined as non-essential and forced to shut down, and geographic variations in industry composition, we estimate the effects of business closure decisions on firms' market value, and on infection and death rates. We find that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of restricted labor is associated with a drop by 3 percentage points in April 2020 employment, a 1.87% drop in firms' market value, and 0.15 and 0.011 percentage points lower Covid-19 infection and death rates, respectively. An extrapolation of these preliminary findings suggests that state-mandated business closures might have cost $700 billion and saved 36,000 lives so far.

Suggested Citation

  • Sauvagnat, Julien & Barrot, Jean-Noël & Grassi, Basile, 2020. "Estimating the costs and benefits of mandated business closures in a pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 14757, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14757
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP14757
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Simon Mongey & Laura Pilossoph & Alexander Weinberg, 2021. "Which workers bear the burden of social distancing?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 509-526, September.
    3. Jérôme Adda, 2016. "Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 891-941.
    4. Croce, Mariano & Farroni, Paolo & Wolfskeil, Isabella, 2020. "When the Markets Get COVID: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 14674, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Facundo Piguillem & Liyan Shi, 2022. "Optimal Covid-19 Quarantine and Testing Policies," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2534-2562.
    6. Fernando Alvarez & David Argente, 2020. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown," Working Papers 2020-34, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    7. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    8. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 622-655.
    9. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    11. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F. Wagner, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-12, Swiss Finance Institute.
    12. Christian Gollier & Olivier Gossner, 2020. "Group Testing against COVID-19," Working Papers 2020-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, revised 02 Apr 2020.
    13. Hensvik, Lena & Le Barbanchon, Thomas & Rathelot, Roland, 2020. "Which jobs are done from home? Evidence from the American Time Use Survey?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1261, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    14. Albuquerque, Rui & Koskinen, Yrjo & Yang, Shuai & Zhang, Chendi, 2020. "Love in the Time of COVID-19: The Resiliency of Environmental and Social Stocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 14661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    16. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Zoë B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher T. Stanton, 2020. "How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey," NBER Working Papers 26989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    19. Callum Jones & Thomas Philippon & Venky Venkateswaran, 2021. "Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home [A simple planning problem for covid-19 lockdown]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5188-5223.
    20. Hassan, Tarek & Hollander, Stephan & van Lent, Laurence & Schwedeler, Markus & Tahoun, Ahmed, 2020. "Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1," CEPR Discussion Papers 14573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Jean-Noël Barrot & Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2021. "Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 277-281, May.
    22. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Fiscal policy during a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    23. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    24. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones & Peter J. Klenow, 2020. "Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 42(1), pages 1-14, June.
    25. repec:aei:rpaper:1008560098 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivàn Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    27. Michael Greenstone & Vishan Nigam, 2020. "Does Social Distancing Matter?," Working Papers 2020-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    28. Wagner, Alexander F. & Ramelli, Stefano, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Laura Alfaro & Anusha Chari & Andrew N. Greenland & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 26950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:arp:sjefsm:2021:p:64-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dion Bongaerts & Francesco Mazzola & Wolf Wagner, 2021. "Closed for business: The mortality impact of business closures during the Covid-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Leonardo Bonilla‐Mejía & Jose Pulido & Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Karen L. Pulido‐Mahecha & Francisco Lasso‐Valderrama, 2022. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Colombian labour market: Disentangling the effect of sector‐specific mobility restrictions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 308-357, February.
    4. Etienne Farvaque & Hira Iqbal & Nicolas Ooghe, 2020. "Health politics? Determinants of US states’ reactions to COVID-19," Post-Print hal-03128875, HAL.
    5. Anna Scherbina, 2021. "Assessing the Optimality of a COVID Lockdown in the United States," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 177-201, July.
    6. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2020. "Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    7. Avijit Bansal & Balagopal Gopalakrishnan & Joshy Jacob & Pranjal Srivastava, 2022. "Impact of operational fragility on stock returns: Lessons from COVID‐19 crisis," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 365-398, June.
    8. Giammanco, Maria Daniela & Gitto, Lara, 2020. "Government measures and economic activity during the COVID-19 outbreak: some preliminary short-term evidence from Europe," MPRA Paper 105072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lucia Svabova & Eva Nahalkova Tesarova & Marek Durica & Lenka Strakova, 2021. "Evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia: counterfactual before-after comparison," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 261-284, June.
    10. Baek, ChaeWon & McCrory, Peter B & Messer, Todd & Mui, Preston, 2020. "Unemployment Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders: Evidence from High Frequency Claims Data," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt042177j7, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    3. Christian Moser & Pierre Yared, 2022. "Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 27-50, October.
    4. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ricardo J Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2021. "A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs: Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a “COVID-19” Shock [Financial intermediaries and the cross-section of asset returns]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5522-5580.
    6. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    7. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Croce, Mariano & Farroni, Paolo & Wolfskeil, Isabella, 2020. "When the Markets Get COVID: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 14674, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Cem Çakmaklı & Selva Demiralp & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 27191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Vandenbroucke Guillaume, 2022. "The Mechanics of Individually- and Socially-Optimal Decisions during an Epidemic," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 131-158, January.
    11. Karolina Drela & Agnieszka Malkowska & Anna Bera & Anna Tokarz-Kocik, 2021. "Instruments for Managing the EU Labour Market in the Face of the COVID-19 Crisis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 984-998.
    12. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," NBER Working Papers 27794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    14. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit Khandelwal & Wookun Kim & Cristiano Mantovani & Edouard Schaal, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 503-522, December.
    15. Marina Azzimonti-Renzo & Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri & Mark Ponder, 2020. "Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks," Staff Report 609, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    17. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    18. V. V. Chari & Rishabh Kirpalani & Christopher Phelan, 2021. "The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies during Pandemics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 1-14, October.
    19. Ferragina, Anna Maria & Iandolo, Stefano, 2022. "Reacting to the economic fallout of the COVID-19: Evidence on debt exposure and asset management of Italian firms," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 530-547.
    20. Pagano, Marco & Wagner, Christian & Zechner, Josef, 2023. "Disaster resilience and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemic; Business closures; Non-essential businesses; Covid-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14757. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.