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Regime changes and the impact of currency depreciations: the case of Spanish–US industry trade

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    ()

  • Hanafiah Harvey
  • Scott Hegerty

Abstract

Over the past half century, Western Europe has been part of varying currency regimes. Yet, whether under Bretton Woods, the European Monetary System, or the Euro, exchange-rate fluctuations have had an influence on these countries’ trade flows with the United States at the national and the industry level. This study looks at the case of Spain, examining the role of real exchange-rate fluctuations on trade with the United States for 74 industries. We find that the trade balances of only 40 industries are cointegrated with their macroeconomic determinants, but that 26 of these respond positively in the long run to a real depreciation. While industry characteristics do not seem to explain which industries are more likely to do this, we find that a relatively large share of industries in the Machinery sector see their trade balances improve after a depreciation. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2013

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirica.

Volume (Year): 40 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 21-37

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Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:40:y:2013:i:1:p:21-37

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100261

Related research

Keywords: Depretiation; Trade balance; Spain; United States; Industry data; Bounds testing; F31;

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References

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  1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Janardhanan Alse, 1994. "Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 453-464, Fall.
  2. Hassan Mohammadi & Murat Cak & Demet Cak, 2008. "Wagner's hypothesis: New evidence from Turkey using the bounds testing approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 94-106, March.
  3. Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade: a cointegration approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 103-119, May.
  4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2013. "The effects of exchange-rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 70-93.
  5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Tankui, Altin, 2008. "The black market exchange rate vs. the official rate in testing PPP: Which rate fosters the adjustment process?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 40-43, April.
  6. Miles, Marc A, 1979. "The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 600-20, June.
  7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
  8. Warner, Dennis & Kreinin, Mordechai E, 1983. "Determinants of International Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 96-104, February.
  9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2010. "The J- and S-curves: a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 580-596, September.
  10. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
  11. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
  12. Kristin Langwasser, 2009. "Global current account adjustment: trade implications for the euro area countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 115-133, July.
  13. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
  14. Glauco De Vita & Khine S. Kyaw, 2008. "Determinants of capital flows to developing countries: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 304-322, July.
  15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  16. James Payne, 2003. "Post stabilization estimates of money demand in Croatia: error correction model using the bounds testing approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1723-1727.
  17. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2007. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries: An empirical view from expenditure components," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Industry trade and exchange-rate fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. and Chile," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 619-626.

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