IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v54y2019i2d10.1007_s10614-018-9844-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Many Agents are Rational in China’s Economy? Evidence from a Heterogeneous Agent-Based New Keynesian Model

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Zhao

    (College of Economics and Management of Northwest A&F University)

  • Yi Lu

    (State Key Laboratory of Astronautic Dynamics of China Xi’an Satellite Control Center)

  • Genfu Feng

    (School of Finance and Economics of Xi’an Jiaotong University)

Abstract

A new Keynesian model built on an agent-based approach is considered and employed to investigate China’s monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations. The assumption of perfect rationality used in standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models is abandoned. The expectation’s heterogeneity, caused by agents behaving according to individual rules through adaptive learning, is one of the agent-based model (ABM) characteristics inserted into the DSGE model. Differential evolution (DE) algorithm is employed to estimate the parameters of an agent-based new Keynesian (ABNK) model, which combined the ABM and the new Keynesian DSGE models. The primary contribution of this study is that the degree of rationality in the economy has been estimated using a model with heterogeneous bounded rationality and adaptive learning. In addition, the determinacy properties of ABNK models with different degrees of heterogeneity are analyzed, which shows that the models that are determinate under the assumptions of rationality may become indeterminate in the presence of heterogeneous expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Zhao & Yi Lu & Genfu Feng, 2019. "How Many Agents are Rational in China’s Economy? Evidence from a Heterogeneous Agent-Based New Keynesian Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 575-611, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:54:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-018-9844-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-018-9844-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10614-018-9844-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10614-018-9844-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2009. "The microfoundations of business cycles: an evolutionary, multi-agent model," Springer Books, in: Uwe Cantner & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Lionel Nesta (ed.), Schumpeterian Perspectives on Innovation, Competition and Growth, pages 161-180, Springer.
    2. Klaus Adam, 2007. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, April.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, July.
    5. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Russo, Alberto & Catalano, Michele & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Gallegati, Mauro & Napoletano, Mauro, 2007. "Industrial dynamics, fiscal policy and R&D: Evidence from a computational experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(3-4), pages 426-447.
    7. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2011. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    8. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    9. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June.
    10. Elsner, Wolfram & Heinrich, Torsten & Schwardt, Henning, 2014. "The Microeconomics of Complex Economies," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780124115859.
    11. Domenico Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2010. "Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 5(2), pages 111-135, December.
    12. Christophe Deissenberg & Sander van Der Hoog & Herbert Dawid, 2008. "EURACE: A Massively Parallel Agent-Based Model of the European Economy," Working Papers halshs-00339756, HAL.
    13. Özge Dilaver & Robert Calvert Jump & Paul Levine, 2018. "Agent‐Based Macroeconomics And Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models: Where Do We Go From Here?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1134-1159, September.
    14. Brock, William A. & de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Expectational diversity in monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 725-759, June.
    15. Manfred Gilli & Enrico Schumann, 2012. "Heuristic optimisation in financial modelling," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 193(1), pages 129-158, March.
    16. Ricetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2013. "Unemployment benefits and financial leverage in an agent based macroeconomic model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-44.
    17. Den Haan, Wouter J., 2010. "Comparison of solutions to the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 4-27, January.
    18. Cincotti, Silvano & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea, 2010. "Credit money and macroeconomic instability in the agent-based model and simulator Eurace," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-32.
    19. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 63-84, Suppl. De.
    20. Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2009. "A Structural Model of Australia as a Small Open Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(1), pages 24-41, March.
    21. Herbert Dawid & Simon Gemkow & Philipp Harting & Michael Neugart, 2009. "On the Effects of Skill Upgrading in the Presence of Spatial Labor Market Frictions: An Agent-Based Analysis of Spatial Policy Design," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(4), pages 1-5.
    22. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
    23. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
    24. Maringer Dietmar G. & Meyer Mark, 2008. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models -- New Approaches to the Model Selection Problem," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, March.
    25. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    26. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David, 2013. "Testing and Estimating Models Using Indirect Inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/8, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    27. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 15-38, March.
    28. Jan Tuinstra & Florian Wagener, 2007. "On learning equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 30(3), pages 493-513, March.
    29. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2013. "Income distribution, credit and fiscal policies in an agent-based Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1598-1625.
    30. Edoardo Gaffeo & Domenico Delli Gatti & Saul Desiderio & Mauro Gallegati, 2008. "Adaptive Microfoundations for Emergent Macroeconomics," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 441-463.
    31. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
    32. Herbert Dawid & Michael Neugart, 2011. "Agent-based Models for Economic Policy Design," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 44-50.
    33. Thiemo Krink & Sandra Paterlini, 2011. "Multiobjective optimization using differential evolution for real-world portfolio optimization," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 157-179, April.
    34. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Working Paper Research 74, National Bank of Belgium.
    35. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2011. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    36. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    37. Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2013. "Unemployment benefits and financial factors in an agent-based macroeconomic model," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-9, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    38. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
    39. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    40. Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2012. "Debt, deleveraging and business cycles: An agent-based perspective," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-49.
    41. Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 680-692.
    42. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
    43. Gilli, M. & Winker, P., 2003. "A global optimization heuristic for estimating agent based models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 299-312, March.
    44. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    45. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
    46. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "An Evolutionary Model of Endogenous Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 3-34, February.
    47. Agliari, Anna & Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Mauro & Lenci, Stefano, 2006. "The complex dynamics of financially constrained heterogeneous firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 784-803, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Özge Dilaver & Robert Calvert Jump & Paul Levine, 2018. "Agent‐Based Macroeconomics And Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models: Where Do We Go From Here?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1134-1159, September.
    2. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
    3. Massaro, D., 2012. "Regime shifts: early warnings," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    4. Adriana Cornea-Madeira & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2019. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 288-300, April.
    5. Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 680-692.
    6. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Surricchio, Silvia & Waldmann, Robert J., 2019. "A behavioral model of the credit cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 53-83.
    7. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-205/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. repec:ctc:serie1:def7 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "Robust Optimal Policies in a Behavioural New Keynesian Model," JRC Research Reports JRC111603, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Hommes, Cars & Zhu, Mei, 2014. "Behavioral learning equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 778-814.
    11. Luca Riccetti & Alberto Russo & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "An agent based decentralized matching macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 305-332, October.
    12. Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
    13. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    14. Anna Agliari & Domenico Massaro & Nicolò Pecora & Alessandro Spelta, 2017. "Inflation Targeting, Recursive Inattentiveness, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1587-1619, October.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Pfajfar, Damjan, 2013. "Formation of rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1434-1452.
    18. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    19. Beqiraj Elton & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Serpieri Carolina, 2017. "Bounded-rationality and heterogeneous agents: Long or short forecasters?," wp.comunite 00132, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    20. Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2014. "Heterogeneity in Inflation Expectations and Macroeconomic Stability under Satisficing Learning," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2014_28, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    21. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Mark Setterfield & Jaylson Jair da Silveira, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability with Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 255-279, December.
    22. De Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-117.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:54:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-018-9844-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.