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Speculative currency attacks: role of inconsistent macroeconomic policies and real exchange rate overvaluation

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Abstract

This paper provides a critical analysis of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) (KR), perhaps the most prominent empirical paper on causes of currency crises. After dealing with problems present in this paper, it proposes an aggregate leading indicator of crisis. The proposed indicator performs better than a composite index based on the best six individual indicators of KR, both in terms of accuracy and predictive capacity, and represents a unified version of the currency crises approach that emphasizes the role of inconsistent macroeconomic policies as an explanation of currency crises, and the approach that emphasizes the role of tradeoffs among policymakers decisions as the main cause of these crises. Variables included in the proposed leading indicator are: the deviation of the actual stock of internationall reserves from an estimated demand for international reserves; the real growth of domestic credit; the ratio of domestic credit to M2; and the behavior of both the real exchange rate and industrial production as a measure of overvaluation of the real exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines in its journal Revista de Analisis Economico.

Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Pages: 3-27

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Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:22:y:2007:i:2:p:3-27

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Keywords: Currency Crises; Current-Account Problems; Early Warning of Crises.;

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References

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  1. Wildo González P. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2007. "Estimación de la Probabilidad de Recesión en Estados Unidos," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 129-136, December.
  2. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  9. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1.
  10. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 04/52, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "Delaying the Inevitable: Interest Rate Defense and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 404-424, April.
  12. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises," NBER Working Papers 7734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Wildo González P. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2007. "Estimación de la Probabilidad de Recesión en Estados Unidos," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 129-136, December.
  2. Ayala, Alfonso, 2011. "Un modelo de predicción de crisis financieras en los mercados emergentes: 1970 – 2009
    [A Prediction Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: 1970 - 2009]
    ," MPRA Paper 42403, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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