Research on the Impact of Output Adjustment Strategy and Carbon Trading Policy on the Response, Stability and Complexity of Steel Market under the Dynamic Game

With the increasingly competitive environment in the steel market and the proposed dual carbon goals, the government will need to consider many factors, such as the realization of energy conservation and emission reduction targets, the production game between enterprises, and the adjustment of production strategies of enterprises. Therefore, this research constructs a repeated dynamic game model including carbon trading policy and other mixed reduction policies, introduces a bounded rationality output adjustment strategy, and studies the response, stability, and complexity of different scenarios in the steel industry. The results are as follows: (1) With the gradual increase in emission reduction targets, the output adjustment policies that enterprises can implement will show an increasing trend under the single carbon trading policy. (2) Under the mixed emission reduction policy, the output adjustment policies that affect enterprises with larger outputs will show an increasing trend when targets continue to increase. (3) Smaller-output enterprises will be restricted and affected by more factors, such as emission reduction targets and larger output enterprises. (4) The influence of carbon trading benchmarks on market stability region is not obvious. In summary, enterprises should comprehensively consider emission reduction policies, output adjustment policies, carbon trading benchmarks, and other factors to ensure that the enterprises and the entire market will not fall into an imbalanced state.