Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
AbstractThe Delphi technique is better than traditional group meetings for forecasting and has some advantages over another promising alternative to meetings, prediction markets. In this article, Kesten, Scott, and Andreas observe the increasing popularity of Delphi, describe the benefits of using this method to obtain forecasts from experts, compare it with prediction markets, and conclude that Delphi should be used more widely. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Institute of Forecasters in its journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.
Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 8 (Fall)
Other versions of this item:
- Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2007. "Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared," MPRA Paper 4663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
- C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
- D - Microeconomics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2004. "Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 27/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
- Palma, David & Dios Ortuzar, Juan de & Casaubon, Gerard & Rizzi, Luis I. & Agosin, Eduardo, 2013. "Measuring consumer preferences using hybrid discrete choice models," Working Papers 164855, American Association of Wine Economists.
- Kerr, Norbert L. & Tindale, R. Scott, 2011. "Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 14-40, January.
- Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011.
"Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 183-195, January.
- Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 183-195.
- Robert J. MacCoun, 2010. "Comment on "Rethinking America’s Illegal Drug Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 281-289 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pam Stroud).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.