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Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared

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  • Kesten Green
  • J. Scott Armstrong
  • Andreas Graefe

Abstract

The Delphi technique is better than traditional group meetings for forecasting and has some advantages over another promising alternative to meetings, prediction markets. In this article, Kesten, Scott, and Andreas observe the increasing popularity of Delphi, describe the benefits of using this method to obtain forecasts from experts, compare it with prediction markets, and conclude that Delphi should be used more widely. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Institute of Forecasters in its journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 8 (Fall)
Pages: 17-20

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Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:17-20

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  1. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2004. "Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 27/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  2. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
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Cited by:
  1. Palma, David & Dios Ortuzar, Juan de & Casaubon, Gerard & Rizzi, Luis I. & Agosin, Eduardo, 2013. "Measuring consumer preferences using hybrid discrete choice models," Working Papers 164855, American Association of Wine Economists.
  2. Kerr, Norbert L. & Tindale, R. Scott, 2011. "Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 14-40, January.
  3. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 183-195, January.
  4. Robert J. MacCoun, 2010. "Comment on "Rethinking America’s Illegal Drug Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 281-289 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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