This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Kesten Green
J. Scott Armstrong
Andreas Graefe

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The Delphi technique is better than traditional group meetings for forecasting and has some advantages over another promising alternative to meetings, prediction markets. In this article, Kesten, Scott, and Andreas observe the increasing popularity of Delphi, describe the benefits of using this method to obtain forecasts from experts, compare it with prediction markets, and conclude that Delphi should be used more widely. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.forecasters.org/foresight/purchase.html
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Article provided by International Institute of Forecasters in its journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 8 (Fall)
Pages: 17-20
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:17-20

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.forecasters.org/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Pam Stroud).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2004. "Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 27/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-142, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS indexes over 600000 items of research in Economics alone.

This page was last updated on 2008-7-16.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.